Desperate Attack:
Dead Man's Hand

by Eduardo Ferreyra
President of FAEC

In a desperate attempt to terrify people and politicians in countries that have not signed the Kyoto Treaty – in order to force them to cripple their economies and kill their industries – the Global Warming Establishment has raised its bet in a game that they should acknowledge by now they have lost

The outcome of the sadly remembered COP 10 climate conference in Buenos Aires, with the severe upset suffered by the greenhouse industry and those countries committed now to reduce their CO2 emissions – dooming their economies
to a unprecedented debacle – has forced a last and desperate effort to rectify the path of a history with a foreseen end: the demise of the Kyoto Treaty. Before COP 10 it was openly repeated in Europe: “Kyoto has never been so close to its ratification – buy never so far from implementing.”

China, India, the USA, Russia, Brazil, Australia – among many countries with significant greenhouse emissions – will not reduce its CO2 output; will not cripple their economies, just because some wild and scientifically unsupported theory says they must do it. Those who designed the Kyoto trap have finally been caught in it, and now they must reduce their emissions – at the cost of crippling their economies, or spending an inordinate amount of money that will set their industries out of the world markets. At first sight, it looks like they have caught their fingers in the door. But no one should fear any economic collapse in those countries. No one, but really nobody, will implement Kyoto as requested by its clauses. It would be like shooting a hole in their heads.

However, among the IPCC ranks and their cohorts, they still believe that fear and Apocalypse calling is a useful tool that will pay off. Following that direction, and repeating the classic abuse of
“science by press release”, a new report has been published in Great Britain and the United States, full of dire and apocalyptic prophecies (they don't even qualify as predictions) about the climate in the next 10 years. Even us have been frightened – not by the alleged catastrophic consequences – but by the huge capacity that the Greenhouse Lobby has for dismissing the scientific truth and fact, and present us a fairy tale with the same scientific credibility as the Lord of the Rings.

The “old trick” of predicting catastrophes in the next 50 or 100 years does not seem to have been successful enough, that is, plunge
mankind (or at least those who read paper and watch TV), in a state of terror bordering uncontrolled panic, imploring their governments to save them from this horrible Apocalypse. Fortunately, regular people do not seem to have been impacted in the last years by the constantly repeated Green Litany. At this respect, they forgot the “duck's back syndrome”: the repetition of dire predictions slips through the people's minds like water over a duck's back.

“Repent, the End is Close”,, or Ecological sinners, Mother Gaia is taking her revenge,” have not been effective enough to impulse people to give away its hardly earned monies, in a happy give away to a Holy Cause whose prophecies
have not shown any sign to become real.

The press release was published by London's newspaper, The Independent, as statements made by Dr. Rakendra Pachauri, IPCC's head, speaking about a report presented during an international conference in exotic Mauritius (as usual) where Dom Perignom, Pomery and caviar is usually enjoyed by the representatives of 114 countries. The report is a repetition of the Green Litany, only with more dark and dramatic tones, the urge to act now, or perish. However, the card they are playing now with the hope of having a winning hand is really the
Dead Man's Hand, as Doc Holliday could have learned – only he didn't. it is a suicidal move, because they have laid all the load of false information, distortion of scientific facts – and all their credibility – in a prediction with absolute accuracy for events that will take place in ten years, in just one package. They cannot predict next week's weather with any degree of accuracy, but they want to scare us with a prediction going 10 years into the future!

The IPCC and its cohort have bet all their scientific credibility on a single card. A loser.

Brief Analysis of the Press Release

Rakenfra Pachauri, IPCC's head, the “international gang of the climatic hoax”, is taking to his mill al the water he can. It must be prevented that the disappearance of this organization, and with it all those beautiful meetings in exotic and expensive resorts near the beach. As a matter of fact, Mr. Pachauri's statements were emitted in Mauritius, at the sound of the party going on in the background. The drinks, the exotic dancers, the whole party, is being paid by us, the suckers that pay taxes

Which is the difference between this prophecy and the old ones? Basically, none. Only this time they stress the utmost urgency by giving the 10 year deadline before we go all to hell. So, it seems we are going there in case we don't follow R. Pachauri and his IPCC boy's advice. I wonder, if we cripple our economies, and destroy our industries, and pay credence to all this lunacy, which is the difference with hell?

In this meeting at Mauritius was presented a report titled
Meeting the Climate Challenge, prepared by the hoodlums at England's Public Policy Research, the Center for the American Progress, in the US, and the Australian Institute, in Koala Land. The heads of this Climatic-Political Task Force are US senator Olympia Snowe, and Stephen Byers, who said, “There is an ecological time bomb ticking,” as the first step towards scaring the hell out of everybody. Because these are not organizations known for their scientific knowledge and capacity, but just for being experts at doing politics (and business), their “scientific” adviser was Dr. Rakendra Pachauri.

It goes without saying that the report says exactly the same Litany that has been repeated over and over for the last 20 years or so. But now it seems that the urge is terrific. And there is where
they have caught their fingers with the door. Citing the report, Pachauri says that CO2 levels have reached its top tolerance limit, that is 379 ppm and, if we reach 400 ppm we will pay a visit to the Devil down below. Which are the reasons for such categorical and brutal claim? Just an unbreakable faith in their climatic models. Poor things, but alas, what can we do? And the science of Paleoclimatology, what does it says about this? A lot, but it seems as if nobody in the IPCC has ever known anything about it.

For those of you who qualify as 1) having a strong scientific interest in this matter, and 2) being able to read and understand technical Spanish, I strongly recommend a website run by Dr Antón Uriarte Cantolla, from Spain (oops, the Basque country), website that show hundreds of excellent pages telling us about the http://homepage.mac.com/uriarte
History of Earth's Climate. This website was later converted into an excellent book and published by the government of the Basque region (or Eusko Jauralitza). Uriarte is a friend of mine, and sent his book along with a dedication: “To Eduardo Ferreyra, whom I admire for being able and eager to swim against the current, from an assiduous reader, – Antón Uriarte.”

In that website you will find (although the same can be found in thousands of other scientific sources), that there existed periods when Earth (the Cretaceous) had a CO2 concentration varying from 2600 to 6000 ppm, that is, from 9 to 15 times the present CO2 levels. However, temperatures during at that time
were barely 1,5 to 2º C higher than present ones. Those 2º C higher than now temperatures were also present during the so called Medieval Warm Period of 800-1250 AD, when CO2 levels were about 280 ppm. So we can clearly see that 2º C higher than now temperatures were the result of 280 ppm and also of 6000 ppm – or were they? There is no correlation at all between the CO2 levels and temperature during the Cretaceus, the Medieval Warming period or today. It is as simple as one plus one.

It comes out quite clearly that CO2 has not the significant capacity of holding heat and being the main contributor of the “greenhouse effect”, as the Greenhouse Lobby would like us to belive – no matter how many computing power, radiative forcing, or similar nonsense they might throw in.

Dr. Pachauri, excuse me for mentioning it, but you seem to be a
high flying functional oligophrenic. If the difference between 379 and 400 ppm (21 parts, that is) you claim will increase Earth's temperature in a catastrophic and irreversible way – why didn't those 6000 ppm in the Cretaceous increase temperature accordingly, that is 15 times, to 30º C higher than present days?

Sahib Pachauri also seems to catch his fingers with the door when, according to the Independent, he says:

“He added that, because of inertia built into the Earth's natural systems, the world was now only experiencing the result of pollution emitted in the 1960s, and much greater effects would occur as the increased pollution of later decades worked its way through. He concluded: "We are risking the ability of the human race to survive."

Then, what are we going to do with the inertia of Earth's natural system if we stop, right now, anthropogenic greenhouse emissions? How are we going to tell Mother Nature Gaia, she must do the same; stop all volcanic activity, decomposing or organic matter, methane emissions by cattle, swamps, rice fields, deep ocean clathrates, etc? Because if she doesn't stop doing it we shall be making a trip to Hades. Would you like to know what would happen in case we stopped completely the burning of fossil fuels as coal? I am sure you would have never imagined it but actually, what will happen will be exactly the opposite of what the IPCC wants to achieve: the Earth will warm up!

The Kyoto Treaty Will Warm the Earth!

We all know that Kyoto regulations will not have the slightest effect on the increase of CO2 nor the increase in temperatures – because, among other things, it is based on the control of just 3,5% of the annual input of CO2 to Earth's atmosphere, that is, CO2 emitted by human activities. Let us Dr. Uriarte explain us what happens, as he describes it in his website and page 204 of section 6.1 Sulphur Aerosols in his chapter The Recent Climate.
“Sulphur particles have an influence on cloud formation, because they are excellent condensation nuclei for water vapor … The result is the increase of cloud albedo, as it increases the total surface area where solar rays are reflected … the generation of energy from fossil fuels produce an increase of CO2 with a warming effect, and an increase of sulphate aerosols, with a possible opposite effect, that is, a cooling.

It has been claimed that during the decades … between 1940.1970, the development of the heavy industry … fuels with lots of sulphur caused the emission of sulphate aerosols … cooling the surface. If it were true that aerosols cool the surface, it must be taken into account that they have a very short period of residence in the atmosphere, much shorter than greenhouse gases, thus in the long range, the effect of the latter must prevail.

Paradoxically, if all combustion of fossil fuels processes would stop suddenly, we would see in a very short period of time an upsurge of the planet's warming, because sulphate aerosols will deposit on the surface in a very short time leaving the atmosphere clean and transparent for solar radiation, while CO2 still in the atmosphere will keep acting during a very long time – warming up the Earth.”

Coral Reefs and the Arctic

Dr. Pachauri also repeated the singsong of coral bleaching and die-off provoked by warming of the water, “they lose their colours and turn a ghostly white. Partly as a result, up to a quarter of the world's corals have been destroyed,” ignoring all those studies showing coral thrive in warm waters, not cool ones. But, if warm waters were the real cause, then El Niño events have killed more coral reefs than mankind's activities. Besides, as Sahib Pachauri had noted before, “natural system's inertia” also apply–
and especially to – the oceans. The ocean's thermal inertia is so huge, that the 0,6º C increase in atmospheric temperature in the last 160 years couldn't have warmed the water much deeper than a couple of millimetres! – leave aside 5 to 20 meters. Pure physics, Mr. Pachauri, return to your textbooks for that chapter you've missed.

Then he mentions the famous –because its fraudulence and antiscientific elaboration – ACIA's study about the increase of temperature in the Arctic and the prophesized total melting of its ice in 50 years. The Independent quoted him saying, “
And in November, a multi-year study by 300 scientists concluded that the Arctic was warming twice as fast as the rest of the world and that its ice-cap had shrunk by up to 20 per cent in the past three decades. The ice is also 40 per cent thinner than it was in the 1970s and is expected to disappear altogether by 2070.” Which shows that Mr. Pachauri has not read the last edition of Science magazine, January 14th, where a scientific study shows that cyclic variations in wind patterns in the Arctic are to blame for the also cyclic changes in thickness and extension of the ice cover.

Why Mr. Pachauri does tell such inaccuracies? Why does he misinform people in such a way? Does not him remember that Arctic temperatures during the decade of the 1930s were much higher than today's? Does he ignore that the ice melting then was much bigger than today's? Besides knowing a lot about Dom Perignom and caviar, does he know anything about Earth's climatic history? If yes,
then please demonstrate it!

The report also mentions Antarctica and an alleged strong warming that it might be going on, the collapse of the Larsen-B ice shelf because “global warming”, and a series of tommyrot and other rubbish. Paleoclimatology reveals us, as Dr. Uriarte highlights it quite well, the adventures of Larsen-B barrier along the climatic history of our planet, the number of times it has collapsed and was reborn, and collapsed again.
But it never melted!

As a total falsehood, the warming of Antarctica is mentioned – in the face of data showing
it has been cooling for the last 35 years! And it does it at a speed that amazes scientists, especially “climate modelers” that see how all their models are just a bad joke when compared to the real thing going on in Planet Earth, the third rock form the Sun. All their models have predicted that the Polar regions are the first ones to warm, and they will be the first to show the warming. Well it has not happened – and it seems it will never happen. As the sun's activity is decreasing, and the Double Gleissberg Minima is getting nearer (2030) the Earth has stared to cool down.

What's worrying is that based in such kind of sloppy computed prophecies, without any scientific base, they demand most industrial and commercial activities to be halted, and most use of fossil fuels to be banned. There are people that seem to be more stupid than they look.

(Source: Anton Uriarte, Historia del Clima de la Tierra)

With your hand over your heart, please tell me if you see any sign of warming trend in those temperature records from the GISS. It looks as it had a cooling between -1 and -3º C in the coast and in the dead center of the South Pole. Please, somebody send mr. Pachauri a mail telling him to go and check ist own temp records at his office in the IPCC headquarters. Perhaps that way he won't keep misinforming people - but we doubt it.

The Arctic follows the same cooling path, despite all reports and assessments by pseudo scientific groups formed by politicians who hire “scientists” to do their dirty job. They claim the Arctic ice
will disappear in 20-50 years. Go no further and check IPCC's own temperature records, that, even as biased and wrong as they really are, still show that the Poles are not warming but cooling. The modeler's prediction of the polar regions being the first ones to warm has resulted in a shot in the foot.

Also, the sea levels are not "rising fast" - actually they have gone down in many places, as in the Maldives Is., in the Inidan ocean, the famed Tuvalu Islands in the Pacific, or the coasts in Scandinavia, just for some examples.

Now that we are in the business of telling Mr. Pachauri about things that he seems to ignore, why someone doesn't tell him about the issue of the variations in solar spots (magentic activity on the Sun's surface) that match almost perfectly the historical temperature records and the reconstructed ones by means of proxy studies? See what Antón Uriarte has to say:

Variation of solar activity during the last milennia according to Bauer (blue) and Lean (red), from variations of sunspots and concentrations in Carbon14 and Berilium10. It is signaled the presumed variation of the solar constant.

Reference: Bauer et al. 2003, Assessing climate forcings of the Earth system for the past millenium, Geophysical research Letters, 30, 9-1/9-4

It must be noted that curves in the raph do not indicate temperatures but solar energy reaching Earth's surface, but the graph matches almost perfectly the cruves of temperatures according to Soon and Baliunas, from the Harvard-smitshonian Center for Astrophysics.

(Sorry for the graph in Spanish! - but you'll get the idea.

Everything Cancelled Until New Warming

News published in newspapers – grudgingly – report about a situation more than abnormal regarding the Northern Hemisphere weather – and climate. It is not about warming due to human activities:
there is a horrifying, nightmarish, bloodcurdling cold, blizzards and snowstorms cover everything with a thick and heavy white layer, transforming houses into Eskimo's igloos. As a friend of mine said, in an email from Saskatchewan, Canada, “We envy your 39º C. We are having the same – but on the minus side. We could use some of your famous global warming.” Global warming, where are you? – we need you, desperately!

James Wilson, from the Weather channel said,
“The 2005 snowstorm will go into history as one of the five mayors in the eastern New England.” It also sent into an impasse the negotiations for the Argentinean foreign debt to be held at Boston on January 24th, because everything in Boston was cancelled out, from airports to pizza parlors. Also “Storm in the US Does Not Ease Down,” cried some newspapers in my hometown in Córdoba, while Massachusetts governor, Mitt Romney asked public employees to stay at home, and governor Don Carcieri, Rhode Island, closed all state and municipal offices. A picture in the paper had the caption, “Homes in Hull, (Saint Germaine, USA) were converted into ice houses.”

At the same time, news from Europe in Argentinean papers were not better, telling stories as: “Polar cold has already taken its toll in human lives,” and heavy suffering of people in Spain, France, and Italy.

People believes no longer the cry “Wolf, wolf!” – because the wolf never showed up, nor has showed any signs of even being in the vicinity. The moment chosen by the Greenhouse Lobby for making its press release couldn't have been worse. It was the same when Al “Ozone” Gore gave its speech anti-warming choosing the night when the lowest temperature record in the US was broken, on January, 2004.

Nobody, but really no one of those under feet of snow and ice in the US and Europe, with temperatures down to -40º C will believe the fairy tale about catastrophic global warming, because they are suffering a series of extremely cold winters. On the underside of the world, in the Southern Hemisphere we have been enjoying a series of really cool springs and summers, with temperatures well 4 to 5º C below normal, for extended periods. Even so, the Greenhouse Lobby won't hesitate in blaming these cool anomalies to “global warming”. The have no shame – or brains.

Really, it is not quire clear the motives for this strange move by the IPCC and its gang, that looks at first sight as a suicidal move – a checkmate in two moves. An explanation given by some analysts in the Clarín newspaper in Buenos Aires was this: "The British paper The Independent remarked that the release of the study coincided with the diffusion of Britain's Prime Minister Tony Blair promises, who presides both the Group of 8 (G-8), the seven most rich countries in the world plus Russia, for the adoption of active policies on the climate change. The report is addressed especially to countries in the G-8, as China and India.” For what China, India, Russia and the US will care! We have no doubts that they are hiding something under their cloak, and it is related to earning money, of course – what else? During February, the month when Kyoto must “seriously” be enforced, we'll start to see which is the real motive for this lack of shame in the form of a press release; this absolute lack of scientific seriousness, this plain baloney on the report about the impending climatic catastrophe in the next 10 years.

Or perhaps what they want is just
another urgent meeting in exotic Cancún, on the Caribbean – for studying elegant measures for not enforcing Kyoto?

Eduardo Ferreyra
President of FAEC

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