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`The Mother Road' - Route 66 remnant, near Clinton, Oklahoma  
24th May 2002
          © John L. Daly

Still Waiting for Greenhouse

A Lukewarm View of
 Global Warming
- from Tasmania

by John L. Daly
(click my name for a bio)

Try the new search facility for this website.  Its database will be developed more fully in coming weeks.  You can choose to search with keywords, author, title, or topic.
The default mode is for keyword searching. 
A selection of photos from my recent trip to the U.S.A. are now available in a user-friendly photo album program.   Simply log on as `guest' (No password needed, but your browser will need the `cookies' option to be enabled). The album is being progressively updated.

 Simple Search on keyword:
Enter a keyword in the text box and your query results will be displayed on the search page. Entry is case sensitive.

For inquiries on these programs and other online software solutions, contact the author, Frank Nilssen

New Items in the Last 7 Days

Stop Press !! ............ Stop Press !

Storm Chasing in Tornado Alley (13 Aug 2002)

You saw the movie, now read my account, with photos and movie clip, of a close encounter with a super-cell thunderstorm in Texas and Oklahoma during my recent visit to the U.S.

Click Here        plus - see this Movie Clip (.mov format, 2.7 MB download)


Australian Economists Speaking Out
 Against the Kyoto Protocol
(19 Aug 02)

Dr Alex Robson
School of Economics
Faculty of Economics and Commerce
Australian National University
Canberra ACT 0200.
AUSTRALIA
Ph +61-2-6125-4909

Dear Economist,

Clive Hamilton and the Australia Institute have produced a petition from over 250 economists calling for the Australian government to "ratify the Kyoto Protocol without delay".

A few economists, not representing any organisation, have started a counter-petition, calling on the government to delay ratification of the Kyoto Protocol until there is stronger evidence that it would create net benefits for Australia.

If you are an economist and agree with the statement, please e-mail Dr Alex Robson of the Australian National University (alex.robson@anu.edu.au ) without delay to have your name added to the petition.

Please forward this e-mail on to all economists that would be interested.  We look forward to receiving your e-mails.

Regards,
Alex Robson
August, 2002.

A Statement by Professional Economists Against Ratification of the Kyoto Protocol

Australia's choices in dealing with global warming are important. Because the Kyoto Protocol is based on uncertain science and does not constitute conclusive scientific evidence regarding the effect of human activity on global warming, it is very difficult for economists to perform complete cost-benefit analyses of the economic, social and environmental consequences of the policy. Even if adverse consequences of global warming could be identified and measured with complete certainty (and they cannot), these consequences must be valued at the time they occur, and some allowance must be made for the fact that the value today of costs and benefits in the future - particularly in the distant future - is not the same as their value when they actually occur.  Ill-conceived, poorly chosen policy responses might marginally reduce potential global warming costs, but they could cost every ordinary Australian more than their share of potential global warming costs.

The Kyoto Protocol is a good example of such a flawed policy response. It involves measures that would have large negative social and economic impacts on all Australians and citizens in other countries. The OECD estimates that
by 2050 the actual economic cost of Kyoto for member countries could be at least US$900 billion annually. Yet the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concedes that full Kyoto compliance is likely to reduce predicted
warming to the year 2050 by only a fraction of one degree.

Thus, even if we accept the dire predictions regarding the economic, social, and environmental consequences of climate change, under the policies advocated by the Australia Institute and the signatories to its petition, ordinary Australians could end up paying twice for any climate change: living standards will be permanently cut for every year that the policies are in place, and then when 2100 arrives they could pay again because of higher temperatures, which are virtually unaffected by the Kyoto Protocol.

More importantly, it is simply not true - as the Australia Institute claims - that serious alternatives to the Kyoto Protocol have not been put forward. Many sensible alternatives to the Kyoto Protocol have been suggested by economists in Australia, the United States, and Europe.  For all of these reasons, we, as professional economists, believe that it is
erroneous to conclude that it is in Australia's economic, social or environmental interests to ratify the Kyoto Protocol.

Asian Haze
 (16 Aug 02)

In east Asia, the summers have seen a toxic brown haze spread all over the region, from China to India to southeast Asia and Indonesia. It has been caused by a combination of forest burnings, kitchen fires, dirty combustion of fossil fuels, choking traffic in major cities, and poor environmental standards for heavy industries. Although the haze obscures the sun, suggesting cooling, the reality is that the haze particles get directly heated by sunlight and thus heats the atmosphere. This must increase temperatures throughout the region, an increase unrelated to greenhouse gases directly.

James Hansen's proposal that climate policy should first be directed at tackling this haze problem
(which also exists outside Asia but less severely), seems a sound one in that the health of whole populations and the environment would undoubtedly improve.

This also reinforces the insistence by the US and Australia that a climate treaty which leaves these countries outside the regulatory system is simply unworkable and climatically irrelevant. What's worse, clean industries in Kyoto-regulated western countries would migrate to countries which were not part of the Kyoto scheme, thus reducing their costs and increasing emissions even further. A thoroughly self-defeating scheme if ever there was one.

But give it a few weeks. By the time the Johannesburg Earth Summit convenes, someone will find a way to blame even the Asian brown haze on Western countries, accompanied by strident calls for `aid' and `compensation'.


NYT and Alaska
 (5 Aug 02)

There has already been two brief stories recently exposing the use of incorrect temperature trends for Alaska by the New York Times.  They did it not once, but twice when their `correction' to the first story proved to be just as false as the original story.

The press are the guardians of the public interest against abuse by government and government officials.  But to whom is the press accountable when they publish stories which are false, and demonstrated to be so by the very institutions they are quoting?

Miceal O'Ronain has researched the origins of the NYT errors, and reveals the full comedy - or tragedy - of errors in the Guest Papers section here -

See - Alaska at the Limits

Meacher on El Niño
 (17 Aug 02)

Britain will be represented by Environment Minister Michael Meacher at the upcoming Johannesburg Earth Summit.  His job will be to negotiate through the complexity of climate and other issues.  Here is a short  extract from an interview transcript he gave on 9th August to the Sunday Times.

Meacher:  I mean floods in Britain is one we are having to explain, rising sea levels, but in America quite serious things are happening, certainly stronger hurricanes on the east coast which are to do with, what is the name of that hurricane that comes every 2 - 3 years?
Interviewer: They call them different names.
Meacher: No, no, there is a name which is the Spanish word for a young child, what is it called?
Interviewer: El Niño.
Meacher: The El Niño is becoming more frequent and more violent, ...

Meacher thinks El Niño is a hurricane, (which it patently is not), thinks it is becoming more frequent (which it is not, as there has been 5 years between the start of the last one in 1997 and the start of this one in 2002, exactly the average time interval for El Niño events), thinks it is becoming more violent (which this latest one is not), and cannot even remember the name of the phenomenon considering its importance to global climate.

His assertion that America is having more violent hurricanes is also not supported by the facts.

But cheer up Britain.  Mr Meacher will do a fine job for you at Johannesburg and will doubtless sign on the dotted line, in complete ignorance of what he is actually signing. The BBC's take on his interview.


Floods    (16 Aug 02)

This week, floods have ravaged parts of central and eastern Europe, Prague being particularly hard hit. 

While the media knee-jerk reaction has been to blame it on global warming, the British climate establishment has been more circumspect and instead blamed it on storms tracking further south than is usual in summer.

That was never in the global warming script. Under global warming, the heating of the atmosphere would push storm systems further north in the northern hemisphere and further south in the southern. Instead, they have moved south, dumping rain on areas normally drier.  Indeed, storm system tracks moving south would be more indicative of global cooling, not warming.

The last great flood in Prague on this scale occurred precisely during a known cool period globally - 1897.

One further aggravating factor in these floods is the deforestation over decades in the mountain catchments, especially the Jizera Mountains, caused by acid rain and extensive logging. That increases the rate of water runoff and adds further to the intensity of flooding.

Australia and Kyoto
 (21 Aug 02)

Green organisations are by now hyperventilating over the Australian government's refusal to ratify the Kyoto Protocol.  Greenpeace even did one of their usual publicity stunts to voice their disapproval.

GreenPeace melodramatics aside, there is a real debate going on within Australia about the Kyoto issue and `Online Opinion', a discussion based website is hosting 5 articles on the issue, followed by reader debate.

One of these articles is by yours truly -

 "Australia ratifies the Kyoto Protocol - and implements it how, exactly?" 

and I discuss several reasons why Kyoto would be highly damaging to Australia.


Meacher on `Spin'
 (21 Aug 02)

Michael Meacher, Britain's Minister for the Environment, talking to the Sunday Times in response to a question about his government's concentration on `spin' and `trivia' -

"As you well know we are not engaged in spin any more."

Which means of course, they were up to their armpits in it prior to the Sunday Times interview, timed to coincide with the Johannesburg Earth Summit.

This begs the question as to whether Meacher really means it this time or is still dishing out spin with his claim that he not engaged in spin anymore.

Etc. etc. etc.


Greenpeace
Caught Out

(21 Aug 02)

A recent Greenpeace exposé on a glacier on the island of Svalbard in the Arctic Ocean, claiming it to have receded dramatically due to global warming, has proved to be a complete beat-up - as is usual for Greenpeace whose economy with the truth is legendary.

Scientists on Svalbard itself dismiss the entire story as false.  The glacier retreated alright - 80 years ago!

GreenPeace falsely represented this event as a recent occurrence.


For Previous "Stop Press!" news,
 Click on the
 Tasmanian Devil

South Pacific Forum (16 Aug 02)

This week, Australia's Prime Minister, John Howard, attending the South Pacific Forum (an annual meeting of all South Pacific countries), was confronted by the Prime Minister of Tuvalu, making the usual false claim that his country was sinking under the waves due to `rising sea levels'. He held Australia somehow responsible, even though Australia only accounts for 1.5% of the world total emissions. Howard looked bemused, no doubt briefed by his own officials that sea level data collected by Australian tide gauges actually on Tuvalu show no sea level rise there. Indeed, this year the sea level will be falling due to the current El Niño (as the chart below shows, sea level always falls temporarily in the south-eastern Pacific during an El Niño). Tuvalu's problem with the sea is land misuse resulting in erosion. Greenhouse gases provides the Tuvalu government a convenient pretext to deflect responsibility for a mess entirely of their own making

Here's a sea level chart from the tide gauge at Funafuti Atoll, Tuvalu  As this and many other Pacific tide gauges show, the alarmist claims of recent sea level rise made by the IPCC are quite false.  This data could well be used as evidence in court should the Tuvalu government choose to sue the United States and Australia for causing a non-existent sea level rise.  There are numerous reports of Pacific island governments making unsubstantiated claims to the United Nations and World Bank about their sea levels as a lever to extract more aid money from western nations like the U.S. and Australia.

Recent Media Stories

(This is a new segment to the page. Information on positive media stories would be appreciated)

Science Daily - "Satellites Show Overall Increases In Antarctic Sea Ice Cover"  (24 Aug)
  The London Telegraph - "Melting glacier 'false alarm"   (17 Aug)
  The Australian - "Summit is nothing but a hot-air fest"   (20 Aug) 
BBC News - "What's behind the weather?"   (13 August)
Environment News Service - "Cosmic Rays Help Resolve Global Warming Puzzle"  (31 July)
NineMSN News, Australia - "Scramjet rocket launched at Woomera"  30 July)
BBC News - "Icebreaker trapped during polar rescue"  (24 July)
 MSNBC News - "Alaska’s Hubbard Glacier advances rapidly"  (15 July)
Fairbanks Daily News-Miner - "Come Rain or Shine"   (8 July)
Nature, Science Update - "Shake-up for climate models"
   (1 July)

Tech Central Station - "Collapse of Sound Science"
 (29 June)
Tech Central Station - "Coloring Climate Change"  (28 June)
Atlanta Journal- Constitution - "Tackle traffic, pollution separately"  (25 June)
Yahoo! News  - Ship Trapped in Antarctic ice
  (24 June)
National Post, Canada - Climate Change Theory ca. 1887  (24 June)
National Post, Canada - "Polar Bear Scares"
  (22 June)
Spectator, London - " Prepare for the big chill"    (22 June) 
Geotimes - "Solar Links to Climate Change"
  (21 June)
Yahoo! News - "Temperature Down in May"  (20 June)
NASA News - "Record Winter Weather Caused Major Economic Impacts in the U.S."   (18 June) 

See Wyoming State Climate Office website for more media stories from around the world.

Special Reports on Major Climate Issues

"Australia ratifies the Kyoto Protocol - and implements it how, exactly?" (21 Aug 02) - A discussion on the economic impact Kyoto would have on Australia.

Badwater (19 Jul 02).  A world record in the making...

TOPEX-Poseidon Radar Altimetry:  Averaging the Averages  (5 Dec 2001).  Just how accurate is sea level monitoring from satellites? 

`Making' the News:  The Sunday Times and British Climate (20 Nov 2001).  How the London Sunday Times has distorted climatic data for Britain without so much as a murmur from the originators of that data. 

The Nenana Ice Classic: Betting on Warming  
(28 Oct 2001).  Alaskans have been betting on the date and time of river ice breakup at Nenana every Spring. Now the Greenhouse Industry is in on the act, with some sloppy science in `Science'.

Quality Control - CRU Style (15 Aug 2001).  
The full story on CRU's lack of quality control. 

The `Hockey Stick': A New Low in Climate Science
(12 Nov 2000)  
The new dogma by both the IPCC and US National Assessment is that the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age during the last millennium never happened. Their claim is politically inspired.

The `National Assessment': Regional Pain with No Gain  (14 Sept 2000).  A critical analysis of the NAS treatment of the US regions. 

The `National Assessment' Overview: Politics Disguised as Science  (22 Aug 2000).  A critical review of the US `National Assessment report to the US Congress. 

Mandate the Future & ctrlaltesc.org interviews John L. Daly    (3 Mar 2002)  

A Clap of Thunder (12 May 2001).   The saga of the Barrow Thunderstorm of 19th June 2000 in Alaska.

The Return of `Moby Dick' (17 April 2001)  Two papers in Science about the deep oceans which make lots of questionable assumptions. 

A Smoking Pea-Shooter (19 March 2001)  Human influence on the  greenhouse effect has now been measured in a British study of two sets of satellite data 27 years apart. This report  reveals some surprising facts about the study not reported in the media. 

The Top of the World: Is the North Pole Turning to Water?
(2 Feb 2001)   Water at the North Pole was big news in August 2000. Was it just another media scare story, or is the Arctic sea ice really disappearing?  This report details the whole issue of Arctic sea ice.
Also -  See this BBC report on Arctic Sea Ice

Testing the Waters: A Report on Sea Levels   (July 2000)
Has global sea level risen 10 - 25 cm during the 20th century as claimed by the IPCC? This report presents evidence to show that the claim is false and based purely on modelling.

The Surface Record: Global Mean Temperature and How it is Determined at Surface Level   (June 2000)   An argument for an independent review of the `surface record'. The satellites were reviewed, so why has the `surface record' escaped independent examination?

Translations into Spanish/Español

Una Gomera Podrida    por John L. Daly  (17 Aug 02) 
Altimetría del Topex/Poseidon: Promediando los Promedios   por John L. Daly (17 Aug 02) 
El Palo de Hockey: Nuevo Bajo Nivel en la Ciencia Climática   por John L. Daly (10 Aug 02)
La Ciencia Que Perdió el Rumbo    por John L. Daly  (10 Aug 02)

(Spanish translations by Eduardo Ferreyra of various articles , who also translated the `Stations' page


"Is this the picture that takes the heat
out of global warming?" - asks the BBC
Photo 29th Aug. 1999, 1.04 pm, AEST (around mean tide) © John L. Daly

Melbourne Herald-Sun story on the `Isle of the Dead'

Sea Levels!

Testing the Waters: A Report on Sea Levels
by John L. Daly

The `Isle of the Dead' - Zero Point of the Sea?
Part 1 of a two part report by John L. Daly

Part 2 of  `The Isle of the Dead'
- a review of the evidence
`Open Review' comments on the `Isle of the Dead'

The Lecture at the Royal Society
(CSIRO finally goes public on the 1841 benchmark 
with -
`Open Review'

Recent Guest Papers

Alaska at the Limits by Miceal O'Ronain (USA). How the New York Times completely mangled their reportage of recent Alaska temperatures, and could not even get their `correction' right.

A New Metric to Detect CO2 Greenhouse Effect Applied To Some New Mexico Weather Data  
by Slade Barker (USA). An enhanced CO2 greenhouse effect should result in greater heat retention in the atmosphere at night.  Dr Barker, a retired geophysicist, uses historical data to show this does not happen in dry New Mexico.

Coloring the Models:  Climate Change through Color Change  by Miceal O`Ronain  (USA).  See Preview regarding this latest National Assessment scandal.

  Weather Station(s)
of the Week

Each week a rural or small town weather station(s) with a long consistent record of temperature will be posted to see if it exhibits  `global warming'.

This week -
Southern Argentina

Three stations are presented, San Antonio Oeste, Trelew, and San Julian. Of the three Trelew has the longest record - 100 years. 

Click below for many other, mostly rural,  weather station records from around the world.


Also in ...  Español

Latest Weather & Climate Information

Latest Satellite Image of Australia
      from James Cook University. Time is in GMT

 Latest MSL Synoptic Chart of Australia
      from Australian Bureau of Meteorogy. Time is in GMT

Daily Global Sea Surface Temperature
      from University of Wisconsin-Madison, USA

 Monthly Sunspot Data (Cycle 23)
       from data published by IPS, Australia

Latest U.S. Temperatures (time in GMT, temp. in ºF)

 Global Mean Sea Level - from TOPEX-Poseidon satellites.
Also see TOPEX-Poseidon Radar Altimetry:  Averaging the Averages 
(5 Dec 2001). Just how accurate is Topex-Poseidon? 

Latest Arctic Sea Ice 
     from Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center

El Niño/La Niña 
Southern Oscillation

Click on the image for the latest on the
El Niño/La Niña Southern Oscillation



Remember - Dr Theodor Landscheidt predicted on this website in 1998 that the next El Niño will peak late in 2002.  El Niño has already started.

Other Site Contents (Click the section label)

Global Warming?

    The `Surface Record'  

It's not really a record at all, but a statistical composite from station records from all over the world, most of them from towns and cities, and most from countries which do not maintain their stations or records properly.

This record is compiled by the Goddard Institute (GISS) in the US, and the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) in Britain. This GISS graph indicates a global warming of +0.8°C. Is it real? Or is it just a statistical product of urban warming skewing the data, and bad site management in non-OECD countries?

The warming up to 1940 has now been conceded by the IPCC to have been caused by the warming sun during the earlier part of the 20th century.
   

     The U.S. Record    

This is the composite record from hundreds of weather stations in the 48 states of the contiguous USA., the early 1930s being the hottest years of the 20th century. This is completely at variance with the GISS global record shown above.

Is the US record a better reflection of the global picture? Urbanisation has been more successfully corrected for in the US than in the rest of the world where there is a lack of rural baseline data from which to make urban adjustments to city records.

The US has the best maintained network of weather stations in the world, and this must surely be a better representation of the global picture too. The US record also agrees with the satellites (below)

    The Satellite Record 1979-2002 

    The new way to determine global temperature is to use satellites to measure the temperature of the lower atmosphere, giving the Earth a uniform global sweep, oceans included, with no cities to create a false warming bias. This second method, used since January 1979, is accurate to within one hundredth of a degree,  and is clearly the best record we have.  Here is Global Mean Temperature (anomalies in °C) of the Lower Troposphere (lower atmosphere) for the 23-year period January 1979 to July  2002, as measured by NOAA satellites. It shows a very different picture to that of the global `surface record' over the same period.

Global trend per decade = +0.065°C,    (Northern Hemisphere = +0.137°C,     Southern Hemisphere =  - 0.008°C.)
Global July 2002  =  + 0.153°C, (Northern Hemisphere =  +0.318°C,    Southern Hemisphere = - 0.012°C.)

Here are the annual averages for the full satellite data period 1979-2001.

1998 stands out as an anomalous year from the rest, caused entirely by the big El Niño of that year.  1998 alone is responsible for the `warm' statistical trend of the entire 23-year period.

2001, which CRU and GISS claim is the `2nd warmest year ever' is actually only the 9th warmest since 1979 when measured properly by satellite.

The actual data from which the above graphs are derived.
  Northern & Southern Hemispheres compared.
For further info see the Earth System Science Laboratory at the University of Alabama - Huntsville, USA

A comparison of the two data sets are shown here.  The two sets are referenced to a common zero (as at January 1979) to compare subsequent relative trends.

Notice the growing divergence between the two. However, over the USA and western Europe, both surface and satellites agree with each other at the regional level. This suggests the global surface record is exhibiting a false trend due to inferior non-OECD station records and urban heat island effects in city records.

See The Surface Record: Global Mean Temperature and How it is Determined at Surface Level  by John L. Daly.
An argument for an independent review of the `surface record'. The satellites were reviewed, so why has the `surface record' escaped an independent examination in the public interest?

`What the Stations Say' page now has new stations added and some existing ones updated 

(See `El Niño and Global Temperature', to see why some years are hot, and some are cool.)


e-mail is welcome

daly@john-daly.com

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