"One can only understand these occurrences if one examines them in their totality and mutual interdependence. One finds no solution to the ozone problem if one examines only the photochemical side, but neglects the energetics and dynamics."
"Instead of a uniform distribution of ozone along a [band of constant] latitude, as the current models predict. Cristas showed a patchwork of large and small structures in the ozone distribution ... The first results show that photochemical models alone do not adequately describe the condition of the atmosphere. Dynamic processes and transports must be considered, for which temperatures, waves, and turbulences show themselves responsible."
Dr. Ulrich Grossman, one of the leaders of the Crista project at the University of Wuppertal, summarized some of the results in an interview: (1)
"The main point is that the instrument measures with an extremely high spatial resolution in a very short time. So we get a very dense measurement net over the globe within the constraints of the Shuttle orbit. What we see in nearly all emissions and also in ozone density is that there are large fluctuations from point to point and that the ozone distribution in a horizontal map looks like a weather map."
Models Versus Reality
The shortcomings of the existing ozone models is a central issue. The Nov. 6 Wuppertal press release states:
Crista measured ozone distribution from 15 to 95 kilometers in altitude. The expected values are based on the so-called Keating model, compiled from earlier experimental results. The Keating model shows no variations in the ozone density along a line of constant latitude, so that the ozone distribution is assumed to be a clear band structure, with densities greatest at the equator and diminishing toward the poles. During the Nov. 6 press conference, Crista researcher Dr. Martin Riese summarized the more significant results of the mission, especially the dynamical structures. One of his most interesting observations is that the so-called ozone hole over Antarctica is the result of dynamicprocesses in the atmosphere, not af man-made chemicals. According to Riese:
"The correspondirig ozone distribution measured by Crista presents a completely different picture [from the Keating model], Although the ozone density diminishes from the equator toward the poles, the band structure of the Keating model is no longer visible. This is especially true for the high northerly and southerly latitudes. A large number of larger (10,000 km) and smaller (1,000 km) structures appear. In addition, there are in part considerable fluctuations of the ozone layer from one measurement point to the next. In total, the ozone distribution resembles a patchwork."
"The large structure is an area with relatively low ozone concentrations at the high northerly latitudes. The polar vortex, which is building up, is visible here, in which a sideways movement of the air masses is visible. This sideways motion causes ozone-poor air from greater heights to be transported to an altitude of 30 km."
"A structure of medium size is found northwest of Tierra del Fuego [at the tip of South America]. There is an area of extremely low ozone concentration in the region of the outwardly directed south polar vortex. This does not concern the so-called ozone hole, which also occurs in the south polar vortex, but at lower altitudes. The ozone hole is a consequence of the peculiar meteorological conditions in the southern winter, which lead to a very stable polar vortex and thereby permit a complete destruction of the ozone between 12 and 22 km in the southern spring. In contrast, the low ozone densities at 30 km are mainly a consequence of the transporting away of ozone".
"Crista is designed, in particular, to detect the small-scale structures. The many small structures found in the ozone distribution retrospectively confirm the development of the Crista experiments. The fluctuations that occur from one point of measurement to the next play a great role in the calculation of photochemically influenced production and loss of trace gases. Further small-scale structures of interest are the so-called filaments. These are thin stream-threads which are predicted by the theory and which play a role in observations of the stability of the polar vortex. From understanding the filaments, the question of whether or not there can be an ozone hole at the North Pole assumes greater meaning. In the case at hand, northwest from the ozone hole there appears a filament, which in the future, on the basis of other trace gas measurements taken by Crista, will be more precisely examined".
Grossman stressed the difference between the models and their associated theories, and the results from the Wuppertal series of experiments. "In every rocket experiment", he said, "you see a very structured profile. You see variation from one day to the other, from kilometer to kilometer ... The results never, never looked like a model prediction". Their earlier results were always so different from the model predictions, he said, that they realized that "it can't be that we accidentally always launch on the spot on the Earth and at the time where there is a disturbance in the atmosplwe, and otherwise it is quiet." The Wuppertal researchers concluded from their rocket and balloon experiments that the structures they were finding must be constantly occurring, and that the only way to look into this was to build a satellite for this purpose.
The project was eventually funded by the German Space Agency. The satellite was built by industry while Grossman and his students at the university built the instruments, except for the cryostat (see Crista-Spas project). NASA has been very helpful to them, Grossman said, by providing the Space Shuttle to carry Crista-Spas aloft.
Dynamics, Not Chemistry
The primary role of dynamical processes in determining the thickness of the ozone layer has also been established in other extensive field work. On Dec. 1,Geophysical Research Letters, a joumal of the American Geophysical Union, published a scientific paper by scientists from Norwegian and Russian institutes demonstrating that the thickness of the ozone layer over Russia is determined by meteorology, not chemistry. (2)The scientists, Kjell Henriksen from the University of Tromso in Norway and Valentin Roldugin from the Polar Geophysical Institute in Russia, analyzed one year of daily samples from six Soviet Middle Asian ozone measuring stations at two different altitudes.
They discovered that changes in the ozone layer were directly caused by the horizontal and vertical movement of air masses (that is, wind dynamics). A close analysis of the data also demonstrated that chemistry played no role in the thickness of the ozone layer over these stations.The authors discuss the implications of their work in detail:
Intensive investigations on irregular variations of the total ozone during the last years point out many phenomena as possible sources. Influences related to homogeneous and heterogeneous chemistry, volcanic activity, solar proton events, and other forms of solar activity are documented ... The main cause, however, may be influences from meteorological conditions, and these relations have got much less attention. The role of horizontal advection and vertical motion as a significant source for ozone column variations has been studied more than 40 years ... Recently Rabbe and Larsen (3) have indicated dynamic processes in the atmosphere as a main reason of ozone variations and ozone "miniholes." They show that ascending motion of the air is accompanied by dilution of the ozone layer, and vice versa, descending motion of the air causes enhanced density of the ozone layer. The causes of ascending and descending motions are often winds blowing across mountain ranges. Such vertical air movements will cause adiabatic expansion and compression with cooling and warming in time scales down to a few hours. Chemical processes can also contribute to ozone variations, but here the time scales are days. On the other hand, ozone variations with periods in the order of 10 days, and seasonal variations as well can also be explained by dynamic meteorological reasoning.
"We can safely state that the picture of a depletion of the ozone layer is far more complicated than the picture that the media often gives. Those who expect a depletion timed with the release of CFC gases, will look in vain in their measurement results. It looks like the amount of ozone did increase in the 1950s and 1960s and reached a maximum in the 1970s. Since then, the amount of ozone has been decreasing. We believe that the low values in 1992 and 1993 are due to the volcano Mt. Pinatubo."
More Evidence of No DepletionMeasurementsof ozone levels over southern Norway show that a thinning process occurredvery similarly in 1940-1946 and 1978-1987 and 1988-1994 -except that the measured ozonelevels were lower in the 1940s than now.
Source: Adapted from Thormod Henriksen, "Ozone Layer and UltravioletRadiation", 1994.
Furthermore, any estimate of "ozone depletion," she said, has to factor the natural variability of the Sun's ultraviolet output (which is what creates the ozone layer in the first place), and the shift in wind patterns and meteorological conditions, particularly in the upper atmosphere. In addition, as on the ozone layer, Baliunas also examined the statistical fudge methods used by the ozone depletion theorists to embellish their theory. The 1994 World Meteorological Organization's (WMO) report on ozone depletion, for example, estimates the depletion starting from two points, 1970 and 1978-1979. The choice for the second set of data is clear; that's when satellites started measurements. The choice for the first starting point, supposedly arbitrary, is actually designed to skew the ozone record. As Figure 2 shows, the thickness of the ozone layer goes up and down considerablyfrom year to year. The 1957 readings, however, show that the thickness of the ozone layer is about the same as it is today; thus, there has been no long-term depletion of the ozone layer.By ignoring ozone readings before 1970, the WMO begins its analysis with "a year of maximum ozone abundance for the entire 34-year record...." As Baliunas comments:
"Choosing 1970 or 1978-1979 as the starting point creates the maximum possible downward trends in ozone since then. The selections of the starting points, for example, 1976 or 1957, would indicate no significant downward trend since then. The fact that the inferred trend depends entirely on the selection of the endpoints means that the trend has not been reliably determined."
TheSkin Cancer Scare
The data for ozone levels in the Northern Hemisphere show insignificant variations, but can be manipulated to show what looks like a big hole, simply by changing the scale. Dr. Baliunas pointed out, in her testimony to Congress, that the World Meteorological Organization version of these ozone data (a) leaves out the zero point of the scale, making small variations seem very large. The same data viewed on a scale from 0 to 350 (b) shows the ozone fluctuations to be insignificant.Source:from Dr. Sallie Baliunas' testimony to US Congress, Sept.,20, 1995.
For example, during the same four- to six-week period that the so-called ozone hole appears over Antarctica, a nitrogen oxide (NOx) hole also develops over the same area. Both the so-called ozone hole and nitrogen oxide hole are created in Antarctica by the same natural phenomena, but mentioning this and other unusual phenomena over Antarctica would raise too many questions in people's minds about the extraordinary chemistry that takes place at the end of thepolar winter in Antarctica, and would lead people to question the ozone scare. So, the NOx hole is never mentioned.
Let's look at the UV/cancer theory. First, the scare stories about UV and ozone depletion are based on increases in UV that are minuscule, compared with the natural variations in UV-B that are determined by one's altitude and distance from the Equator. Second, there is no evidence that levels ofUV-B have increased at the surface of the Earth, despite the claims of world wide ozone depletion. And third, biological research now indicates that it is no tUV-B that causes the malignant types of skin cancer, but UV-A, which is not screened out by the ozone layer.The ozone depletion theory predicts that there will be a 10 to 20 percent increase in the level of UV-B radiation at the surface as a result of ozone depletion. This might seem like a large increase, unless one knows something about the geometry of the Sun and the Earth. UV-B varies by 5,000 percent from the Equator to the Poles. It also varies with altitude. This is the result of simple geometry: There is more sunlight exposure at the Equator and the atmosphere is thinner in the mountains, so more UV-B gets through. In mid latitudes such as that of the United States, a 1 percent increase in UV-B is the equivalent of moving 6 miles south (closer to the Equator). Thus,the alleged increase in UV radiation, according to the theory, would be the equivalent of what a person would receive if he were to move 60 to 120 miles south the equivalent of moving from New York City to Philadelphia. Actual instrumental measurements of ultraviolet radiation at the surfaceshow that there has been no increase in UV levels, despite widespread claims of ozone depletion in northern latitudes. Just as with the ozone layer, the levels of UV radiation go through tremendous seasonal fluctuations. The amount of incoming UV radiation is modulated by several factors, including the angle of the Sun at that particular time of the year (lowest in winter), incoming solar radiation, sun spots, thickness of the ozone layer, meteorological conditions (cloud cover, and so on) and pollution. Accurately determining the amount of UV radiation requires long-term readings over an extensive network. Curiously enough, while tens of billions of dollars have been spent on "ozone research"almost no money has been spent on UV readings at the surface. The most extensive study to date of UV-B radiation at the surface is that conducted by Joseph Scotto and his collaborators at the National Cancer Institute. The study, published in the Feb. 12, 1988, issue of Science,(6) presented evidence that the amount of UV-8 reaching ground level stations across the United States had not increased, but in fact, had decreased between 1974 and 1985. Instead of rejoicing at the results, the promoters of the ozone depletion scare saw to it that the network of observing stations was shut down, by cutting its funding (less than $500,000 out of more than$1.75 billion in research funds to study "climate change").
One of the recent attempts to contradict the Scotto study was an article byJ.B. Kerr and C.T. McElroy, published in Science
magazine in 1993, claiming an upward trend in UV radiation over Toronto. (7) The results were front-page news intemationally, but when it was soon demonstrated by other scientists that the so-called trend was based on faulty statistical manipulation (8) this reverse got little publicity. The entire "rise" in UV was based on readings taken during the last 3 days of five years of measurementes!
A correct statistical analysis showed that the trend in UV was zero that is to say, the amount of UV had neither increased nor decreased over the five-year period). Interestingly enough, the Canadian study had been rejected for publication by Nature. At the time the Canadian paper was submitted to Science, F. Sherwood Rowland was the president of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, publisher of Science. According to knowledgeable sources, Rowland rammed through the publication of the paper despite its obvious errors.
Taking Another look at UV-8 and Cancer
In July 1993, Dr. Richard Setlow of Brookhaven National Laboratory published the results of an experiment indicating that malignant melanoma skin cancers are caused not by UV-B, the part of the UV spectrum filtered out by the ozone layer, but by UV-A, a part of the spectrum that is not affectedby the thickness of the ozone layer. (9) In other words, this research indicates that the thickness of the ozone layer is irrelevant to the rates of malignant melanoma, which is the fundamental threat allegedly posed by ozone depletion.
But what about the dramatic increases in reported cases of skin cancer? The increases are real, but they cannot be blamed on ozone depletion. This is the determination of the world's foremost photobiologists working on the effects of sunlight on the body, who gathered for an international conference on "Ozone, Sun, Cancer" in Paris in May 1994. (10) These experts concluded that present rates of skin cancer are caused by a variety of factors, but "the main determinant is individual behavior" in other words, overexposure to the sun, the use of tanning parlors, and, perhaps, the use of sunscreen lotions.
Many scientists pointed out that the range of ultraviolet radiation that causes malignant melanoma is UV-A, thus confirming the research by Dr. Richard Setlow of Brookhaven National Laboratory. Previously, it had been considered that UV-A was the "safe" range of ultraviolet light, while UV-B, which is partially filtered by the ozone layer, was the "unsafe" portion of the spectrum.
Norwegian scientists J. Moan and A. Dahlback state the point strongly: (11) "Increasing rates of CMM [cutaneous malignant melanoma] are not caused by an ongoing ozone depletion." The scientists further note:
"In some studies a tendency of ozone depletion (= 0.03% per year in summer and = 0.27% per year in winter) has been reported also for northern latitudes (55°N). Could this be the reason for the alarming increase in the incidence rates of skin cancer observed over several decades in several countries? Obviously not, since the increasing trend in UV found from 1968 to l990 is too small (only a few percent) to account for the tripling of the CMM incidence rates found for the same period. [See Figure 3.] Thus, the increasing rates of skin cancer seem to be due to changing habits of solar exposure; A strong indication for this is that the increasrng trend of CMM in Norway is lowest for CMM arising on the face and largest for CMM arising on the female breasts. This is likely due to the introduction of the topless swimming suit in the years after 1970."
Moan and Dahlback also address the beneficial aspects of UV radiation. In fact,there is a body of evidence indicating that both sunlight and UV-B provide health benefits. As Moan and Dahlback point out, when UV-B strikes the skin, it turns cholesterol molecules into the hormone cholecalciferol, vitamin D,which plays a crucial role in the body's calcium and potassium chemistry. Therefore, they write:The alarming increses in skin cancer (cutaneous malignant melanoma) in Norway in the past two decades (a) are not caused by ozone depletion, according to Norwegian scientists J. Moan and A. Dahlback. The increases in ultraviolet (b) are far too small for the tripling of skin cancer rates. They blame sunbathing and the introduction of topless swimming suits for the increases.
Source: Adapted from J. Moan and A. Dahlback, 1995.
"Since vitamin D seems to have a protective effect against the development of several forms of cancer, including breast cancer, prostate cancer, gastrointestinal cancer and CMM, an ozone depletion may also have a beneficial effect, notably for persons that get small exposures to solar radiation. In fact, the increase in mortality rates of colon cancer from south to north in USA has been attributed to the protective role of Sun-induced vitamin D. Similar south-north gradients exist also for breast and ovary cancer, notably for post menopausal women. An improvement of the vitamin D status may also be preventive with respect to osteomalacia in elderly people".
A Policy of Genocide
The latest atmospheric data, presented here, confirm that the ozone depletion theory is a scientific fraud. In fact, the Montreal Protocol banning CFCs was signed in 1987, despite the fact that there was no scientific evidence to support such a ban, and that the people who organized the treaty knew that there was no such evidence. Richard Elliot Benedick,the U.S. State Department official responsible for negotiating the Montreal Protocol, says so plainly in his book Ozone Diplomacy.(12)
"The Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer mandated significant reductions in the use of several extremely useful chemicals.... By their action, the signatory countries sounded the death knell for an important part of the international chemical industry, with implications for billions of dollars of investments and hundreds of jobs in related sectors. The protocol did not simply prescribe limits on these chemicals based on "best available technology," which had been a traditional way of reconciling environmental goals with economic interests. Rather, the negotiators established target dates for replacing products that had become synonymous with modern standards of living, even though the requisite technologies did not yet exist.
At the time of the negotiations and signing, no measurable evidence of damage existed. Thus, unlike environmental agreements of the past, the treaty was not a response to harmful developments or events, but rather a preventive action on a global scale".
The ban on the production of CFCs took effect on Jan. 1, 1996, in the United States. This event, which most people may not even notice until their car air conditioners break down, is earth-shaking. The production of one of the most useful chemicals invented by man literally, the life-blood of the world.'s food refrigeration system is ending.
By preserving the food supply and keeping it wholesome, refrigeration is one of the major factors in the dramatic increase in human life expectancy in the past half-century. By removing these inexpensive, benign, and efficient coolants, the Montreal Protocol measures put at risk the poorest populations in the world, those for whom the more expensive refrigerant replacements will make the cost of refrigeration prohibitive. The entire worldwide food chain depends on CFCs. CFCs are used in refrigeration systems at the time crops are harvested and during transportation, storage, and distribution. This refrigeration "cold chain" depends on a steady supply of CFCs and HCFCs. (13)
There are no drop-in substitutes for CFCs and HCFCs for most refrigerators, freezers, and refrigerated transports, which means that as supplies disappear, existing equipment shuts down or is scrapped. Most nations of the world cannot afford to replace this equipment. As a result of the ban on CFCs, the cold chain is already collapsing in the poorer areas of the world, particularly Africa and Eastern Europe.
Public health also suffers from this cold chain collapse, because most vaccines and many medicines need to be refrigerated. In addition, a ban on the agricultural pesticide and fumigant methyl bromide,for which there is no available chemical substitute, means that many countries will lose the abilityto export their crops, and that dangerous pests will spread to other areas of the world to destroy crops and attack people. Methyl bromide is crucial to preserve food in storage, particularly grains. More than one third of theworld's grain supply will be lost if methyl bromide is banned.
In 1992, international refrigeration experts estimated that the ban on CFCs was going to kill between 20 to 40 million people every year by the end of the decade, through hunger, starvation, and foodborne diseases. This is now an underestimate, given the addition of methyl bromide to the list of chemicals to be banned, and given the emergence of new and old diseases.
Can the Montreal Protocol and this nation's ozone policy be reversed? Sherwood Rowland and his colleagues often assert that there are "no credible" scientists or science opposing their theories. Their BigLie stands exposed.
Rogelio A. Maduro is the co-authorof "The Holes in tHe Ozone Scare: The Scientific Evidence That the Sky Isn't Falling",and an associate editor of 21st Century Science & Technology magazine.
The theory that man-made CFCs would deplete the ozone layer is one of many theories claiming that ozone depletion would lead to doomsday. The theory originated in March 1971, when James McDonald, an atmospheric physicist from the University of Arizona, testified at congressional hearings of the Super-Sonic Transport (SST) program. At the time there was a major fight to kill the SST program, but all the arguments of the opposition had failed.
McDonald presented his theory that water vapor emissions from the SST were going to wipe out the ozone layer, allowing a large amount of ultraviolet radiation to penetrate to the surface of the Earth, which would allegedly cause a massive increase in skin cancer incidence. The news media seized upon the skin cancer story and made it the issue of the day. Funding for the SST was killed, and the ozone depletion theory was born. McDonald had previously testified in Congress as an ardent proponent of the theory that UFOs -unidentified flying object- regularly visited the Earth, causing major electrical blackouts in the process of recharging their alien spacecrafts.
Once the skin cancer scare hab been established as an issue that would get the news media's attention, ozone depletion theories began to proliferate. Some maintained that the ozone layer was going to get wiped out by nitrogen oxides from atmospheric nuclear tests, by nitrous oxides from nitrogen fertilizer, by methane from cows and rice paddies, by chlorine from the Space Shuttle exhaust, by acid rain, and by emissions from pesticides, fumigants, and so on.
Enter Rowland and Molina
The theory aiming that CFCs would deplete the ozone layer was theory number 7, invented by F. Sherwood Rowland and Mario Molina in December 1973. Rowland was then head of the chemistry department at the University of California at Irvine, and Molina was his assistant. At the time, the first five ozone depletion theories (SST-water, SST-nitrogen oxides, atmospheric nuclear tests, fertilizers, and methane gases from cows) had faded back into the background. The theory then in vogue (#6) was that the chlorine from the Space Shuttle exhaust would cause ozone holes over Florida and deplete the ozone layer worldwide. Rowland and Molina, however, found a much better source of chlorine in the atmosphere than the Space Shuttle: CFCs.
The Rowland and Molina theory says that CFCs are so inert that there are no sinks (nothing to capture or destroy them) in the troposphere (the portion of the atmosphere below the stratosphere. Therefore, CFCs have very long lifetimes in the atmosphere.
Not the Real Story
Fortunately, Rowland and Molina's version of the atmospheric chemistry is not the real story. The hypothetical threat to the ozone is based on a set of flawed axioms and assumptions fed into computer models that spew out doomsday predictions. The required sequence of chemical reactions has never been observed in the laboratory. It is all supposition. For example, this theory neither predicted, nor can explain the existence of the ozone hole over Antarctica -another new theory that had to be manufactured to explain that:
If any of the axioms and assumptions underlying the ozone depletion theory are proven wrong, the whole edifice falls. The ozone depletion theory assumes, for example, that there are:
Dissenting voices are summarily excluded from the deliberations or the complaints are simply ignored. This is called the "assessment process". Then, when all models are compared, a "consensus"is formed and an edict is issued: Mankind faces doom because some model says this or that action will cause some damaging effects a half-century to a century down the line. These edicts are then promoted in the news media, and opposing views or evidence are seldom, if ever, mentioned.
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Crista, Cryogenic Infrared Spectrometers and Telescopes for the Atmosphere, is a group of infrared instruments sensing the middle atmosphere (10 km to 100 km) from an Earth orbit. Spas is the acronym forShuttle Pallet Satellite, the spacecraft carrying Crista. It is launched into Earth orbit by the Space Shuttle and deployed in free flight for several days, at a distance between 20 and 120 km from the Shuttle.
Crista's measurements achieve and unprecedented spatial resolution; vertical resolution is 1.5 km, and horizontal resolution is 500 km by 650 km. The instrumentis designed to measure small- and medium-scale dynamical structures in the middle atmosphere. Such structures, which until now have been inaccesible to satellite measurements, have strong influence on the photochemistry and energy budget of the atmosphere.
The Crista experiment uses minor constituents in the atmosphere as tracers for atmospheric dynamics (waves, turbulence, and so on). The emissions of these trace gases in the middle- and far-infrared are determined by meansof the limb-scanning technique, and yields the spatial distribution of these gases.
High spatial resolution is obtained (a) by high measurement speed and (b)by using three telescopes that measure simultaneously in three different view directions. High measuring speed is obtained by cooling all parts of the optics by cryogenic temperatures. Satellite measurements show that many parameters of the middle atmosphere exhibit large-scale variations (over several thousand km). These disturbances are quite frequent and often of considerable magnitude.
Small-scale structures of the order of a few hundred to a few thousand kilometers were previously determined under favorable conditions by rocket, balloon,and ground based measurements. These can be quite pronounced, but htese measurements yielded local snapshots only. Hence, little was known about the frequency of occurrence of small- and medium-scale structures.
Crista is the first attempt to determine the global distribution and the frequency of occurrence of such structures. During the relatively short flight time of a Space Shuttle mission, Crista recorded as much data as a typical satellite instrument does in half a year -more than 50,000 images in eight days.
Crista was also able to determine the large-scale structures in the atmosphere present during its deployment. Dynamical structures on all scales have strong influence, especially on the photochemistry of the middle atmosphere. For that reason, the Crista mission is complemented by an experiment on the Spas that can measure radicals in the middle atmosphere, Mahrsi (Middle Atmosphere High Resolution Spectograph Investigation).
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