New scientific evidence continues to demonstrate that the ozone depletion models -and the resulting ban on CFCs- are based on a Big Lie
By Rogelio Maduro
Co-author of the book "The Holes in the Ozone Scare", 1993
New satellite ozone data and other atmospheric studies based on actual measurements confirm that the ozone layer is not a homogeneous, flat and that atmospheric dynamics, not chemistry, is the driving factor that determines the thickness of the ozone layer. The scientific research reported here strips any shred of credibility from the claims of the ozone depletion theorists leaving the Montreal Protocol backed only by the Malthusian ideotogy of its founders.
The dramatic new satellite ozone data, featured on the cover, are from the Crista-Spas ensemble of instruments, designed by scientists at the University of Wuppertal in Germany, which was deployed by the Space Shuttle in November 1994. The Crista team announced its first results at a press conference in Bonn on Nov. 6, 1995, but the results of the mission were barely covered in the European press, and not covered at all in the United States.
Crista-Spas is a group of instruments (Crista), deployed on a space platform (Spas), that measures atmospheric gases in such detail that it can create three-dimensional images of the distribution of the gases in the stratosphere (see Crista-Spas Project). As the German scientists told the press, these 3-D images show that the models behind the ozone depletion scare are completely, and axiomatically, wrong. In the words of Germany's Die Welt newspaper Nov. 7, the evidence presented at this press conference means that "all ozone computer models produced so far have, in effect, turned into waste paper. [Makulatur]."
The Crista-Spas is one of those unique experiments that gives scientists a look at the real processes that shape the atmosphere. Like the early weather satellites that showed us the first top-down, global views of hurricanes and storm systems, Crista-Spas has now provided us with the first set of three-dimensional images of atmospheric gases. Crista-Spas is able to monitor 15 atmospheric gases in great depth and detail. It is a joint project of the University of Wuppertal and the German Space Agency (DARA) together with NASA.
The 3-D images demonstrate that the ozone is organized in complex dynamic vertical and filamentary structures that are constantly changing, in patterns as complex as those of weather systems near the surface. In contrast, the computer models used by the promoters of the ozone depletion and global warming scares assume that the ozone layer is homogeneous, and use linear equations to model the stratosphere. Any attempt to model complex nonlinear processes (such as those demonstrated to occur in the ozone layer) with zonal averaging and linear equations, will invariably give wrong results, regardless of how big a supercomputer is used. The methodology is axiomatically wrong. Yet, this erroneous methodology is what the promoters of the ozone depletion scare have been using to forecast ozone depletion rates and to make policy (See "The Ozone Depletion Theory"). The Crista researchers emphasized this point in their Nov. 6, 1995 press statement:
"One can only understand these occurrences if one examines them in their totality and mutual interdependence. One finds no solution to the ozone problem if one examines only the photochemical side, but neglects the energetics and dynamics."
"Instead of a uniform distribution of ozone along a [band of constant] latitude, as the current models predict. Cristas showed a patchwork of large and small structures in the ozone distribution ... The first results show that photochemical models alone do not adequately describe the condition of the atmosphere. Dynamic processes and transports must be considered, for which temperatures, waves, and turbulences show themselves responsible."
Dr. Ulrich Grossman, one of the leaders of the Crista project at the University of Wuppertal, summarized some of the results in an interview: (1)
"The main point is that the instrument measures with an extremely high spatial resolution in a very short time. So we get a very dense measurement net over the globe within the constraints of the Shuttle orbit. What we see in nearly all emissions and also in ozone density is that there are large fluctuations from point to point and that the ozone distribution in a horizontal map looks like a weather map."
When the modelers "talk about zonally averaged values, it is useless," Grossman said. The ozone layer "is very, very structured. All these structures are moving around, like what you see in the weather map... You have to take all these into account if you want to make a real, reliable forecast for ozone over the next... 20 or 40 years."
Because all the processes involving all these gases in the atmosphere generally are nonlinear, when you take averages, you make mistakes. Once you are down to precision on the order of [hundredths], the errors which you would make by using average values are much bigger than that. Grossman does not believe that even a "mathematical program with the best computers" would be able to do this properly.
Models Versus Reality
The shortcomings of the existing ozone models is a central issue. The Nov. 6 Wuppertal press release states:
"A further scientific goal [of the mission] is the examination of the validity of the so-called atmosphere models. Until now computer simulation models were used for the prediction of certain changes in the atmosphere, as for instance the ozone hole or greenhouse effect, as the only expression of these phenomena. The high quotient of error (1 to 2 errors in 1,000 program steps with a total of 1 million steps) places our "knowledge" of the protective layer of the Earth in question. Crista delivers for the first time scientifically grounded information."
Crista measured ozone distribution from 15 to 95 kilometers in altitude. The expected values are based on the so-called Keating model, compiled from earlier experimental results. The Keating model shows no variations in the ozone density along a line of constant latitude, so that the ozone distribution is assumed to be a clear band structure, with densities greatest at the equator and diminishing toward the poles. During the Nov. 6 press conference, Crista researcher Dr. Martin Riese summarized the more significant results of the mission, especially the dynamical structures. One of his most interesting observations is that the so-called ozone hole over Antarctica is the result of dynamicprocesses in the atmosphere, not af man-made chemicals. According to Riese:
"The correspondirig ozone distribution measured by Crista presents a completely different picture [from the Keating model], Although the ozone density diminishes from the equator toward the poles, the band structure of the Keating model is no longer visible. This is especially true for the high northerly and southerly latitudes. A large number of larger (10,000 km) and smaller (1,000 km) structures appear. In addition, there are in part considerable fluctuations of the ozone layer from one measurement point to the next. In total, the ozone distribution resembles a patchwork."
"The large structure is an area with relatively low ozone concentrations at the high northerly latitudes. The polar vortex, which is building up, is visible here, in which a sideways movement of the air masses is visible. This sideways motion causes ozone-poor air from greater heights to be transported to an altitude of 30 km."
"A structure of medium size is found northwest of Tierra del Fuego [at the tip of South America]. There is an area of extremely low ozone concentration in the region of the outwardly directed south polar vortex. This does not concern the so-called ozone hole, which also occurs in the south polar vortex, but at lower altitudes. The ozone hole is a consequence of the peculiar meteorological conditions in the southern winter, which lead to a very stable polar vortex and thereby permit a complete destruction of the ozone between 12 and 22 km in the southern spring. In contrast, the low ozone densities at 30 km are mainly a consequence of the transporting away of ozone".
"Crista is designed, in particular, to detect the small-scale structures. The many small structures found in the ozone distribution retrospectively confirm the development of the Crista experiments. The fluctuations that occur from one point of measurement to the next play a great role in the calculation of photochemically influenced production and loss of trace gases. Further small-scale structures of interest are the so-called filaments. These are thin stream-threads which are predicted by the theory and which play a role in observations of the stability of the polar vortex. From understanding the filaments, the question of whether or not there can be an ozone hole at the North Pole assumes greater meaning. In the case at hand, northwest from the ozone hole there appears a filament, which in the future, on the basis of other trace gas measurements taken by Crista, will be more precisely examined".
The Crista-Spas experiments have been in the making for more than 10 years, and over this period, the University of Wuppertal has also launched rockets and baloons with different types of infrared spectrometers. According to Dr. Grossman, it took this long to complete the Crista experiment largely because funding for this kind of reseaeh is limited.
Grossman stressed the difference between the models and their associated theories, and the results from the Wuppertal series of experiments. "In every rocket experiment", he said, "you see a very structured profile. You see variation from one day to the other, from kilometer to kilometer ... The results never, never looked like a model prediction". Their earlier results were always so different from the model predictions, he said, that they realized that "it can't be that we accidentally always launch on the spot on the Earth and at the time where there is a disturbance in the atmosplwe, and otherwise it is quiet." The Wuppertal researchers concluded from their rocket and balloon experiments that the structures they were finding must be constantly occurring, and that the only way to look into this was to build a satellite for this purpose.
The project was eventually funded by the German Space Agency. The satellite was built by industry while Grossman and his students at the university built the instruments, except for the cryostat (see Crista-Spas project). NASA has been very helpful to them, Grossman said, by providing the Space Shuttle to carry Crista-Spas aloft.
Dynamics, Not Chemistry
The primary role of dynamical processes in determining the thickness of the ozone layer has also been established in other extensive field work. On Dec. 1,Geophysical Research Letters, a joumal of the American Geophysical Union, published a scientific paper by scientists from Norwegian and Russian institutes demonstrating that the thickness of the ozone layer over Russia is determined by meteorology, not chemistry. (2)The scientists, Kjell Henriksen from the University of Tromso in Norway and Valentin Roldugin from the Polar Geophysical Institute in Russia, analyzed one year of daily samples from six Soviet Middle Asian ozone measuring stations at two different altitudes.
They discovered that changes in the ozone layer were directly caused by the horizontal and vertical movement of air masses (that is, wind dynamics). A close analysis of the data also demonstrated that chemistry played no role in the thickness of the ozone layer over these stations. Theauthors discuss the implications of their work in detail:
Intensive investigations on irregular variations of the total ozone during the last years point out many phenomena as possible sources. Influences related to homogeneous and heterogeneous chemistry, volcanic activity, solar proton events, and other forms of solar activity are documented ... The main cause, however, may be influences from meteorological conditions, and these relations have got much less attention. The role of horizontal advection and vertical motion as a significant source for ozone column variations has been studied more than 40 years ... Recently Rabbe and Larsen (3) have indicated dynamic processes in the atmosphere as a main reason of ozone variations and ozone "miniholes." They show that ascending motion of the air is accompanied by dilution of the ozone layer, and vice versa, descending motion of the air causes enhanced density of the ozone layer. The causes of ascending and descending motions are often winds blowing across mountain ranges. Such vertical air movements will cause adiabatic expansion and compression with cooling and warming in time scales down to a few hours. Chemical processes can also contribute to ozone variations, but here the time scales are days. On the other hand, ozone variations with periods in the order of 10 days, and seasonal variations as well can also be explained by dynamic meteorological reasoning.
After a detailed analysis of the Russian data, Henriksen and Roldugin conclude with a sharp reminder to the promoters of the ozone depletion fraud that they cannot arbitrarily exclude factors other than chemistry from their models:
The question of so-called "ozone depletion" has to be investigated from the point of view of long-term variation of general circulation in the atmosphere. Models of "the depletion," as summarized in [the World Meteorological Organization's] WMO Report, must realize that the meteorological conditions have significant effects on the ozone layer, being the main cause of seasonal as well as most of the shorter and apparently arbitrary density and thermal variations.
No Ozone Depletion over Norway
Other scientific papers have confirmed that the ozone depletion theory is wrong. The Norwegian science magazine From the World of Physics, for example, published a thorough review of ozone science by Thormod Henriksen from the Institute of Physics at the University of Oslo, which presents evidence that the ozone layer was thinner in the 1940s than today! (4)
Norway has several of the ozone measuring stations that have been operating continuously for the longest periods of time, and these are managed by some of the most qualified scientists in the field. Thus, Norway has some of the best, consistent data for a historical analysis of ozone trends. Henriksen describes the history of ozone research in Norway, and analyzes the ozone data starting in the 1940s. Figure 1 compares measurements done at the Dombaas research center in two periods: 1940-1946 and 1978-1994. As can be seen, the ozone layer went through a thinning process in the 1940s similar to that occurring now, with the exception, as noted by Henriksen, that "the ozone layer over southern Norway was thinner in the period between 1940 to 1946 than it is today." Henriksen also points out that the level of ultraviolet (UV) radiation have hardly changed:
"[In] the last 50 years the ozone layer has not changed to such a degree that biological effects are to be expected. In other words, there have hardly been any changes in the levels of UV-radiation, and therefore it is a dead-end to connect the recent years' development of the ozone layer with the increase of skin cancer."
"We can safely state that the picture of a depletion of the ozone layer is far more complicated than the picture that the media often gives. Those who expect a depletion timed with the release of CFC gases, will look in vain in their measurement results. It looks like the amount of ozone did increase in the 1950s and 1960s and reached a maximum in the 1970s. Since then, the amount of ozone has been decreasing. We believe that the low values in 1992 and 1993 are due to the volcano Mt. Pinatubo."
SEASONAL VARIATIONS IN THE OZONE LAYER
OVER NORWAY (1940-1946 and 1978-1994)
More Evidence of No DepletionMeasurements of ozone levels over southern Norway show that a thinning process occurred very similarly in 1940-1946 and 1978-1987 and 1988-1994 -except that the measured ozone levels were lower in the 1940s than now.
Source: Adapted from Thormod Henriksen, "Ozone Layer and Ultraviolet Radiation", 1994.
Another way of taking on the unreliability of the ozone depletion theory is to examine the fudge factor in how the scare story data are presented. Harvard Astrophysicist Sallie Baliunas put the data in perspective in a paper presented at a congressional hearing on ozone, Sept. 20, 1995. (5) Baliunas focussed on the unreliability of the estimates of ozone depletion, which have claimed as much as 0.3 percent depletion per year. The natural variability of the ozone layer, she said, is orders of magnitude greater than the alleged man-made "depletion." "Over Washington, D.C.," she noted, "ozone varies annually by 25 percent, some 80 times greater than the stated anthropogenic decline."
Furthermore, any estimate of "ozone depletion," she said, has to factor the natural variability of the Sun's ultraviolet output (which is what creates the ozone layer in the first place), and the shift in wind patterns and meteorological conditions, particularly in the upper atmosphere. In addition, as on the ozone layer, Baliunas also examined the statistical fudge methods used by the ozone depletion theorists to embellish their theory. The 1994 World Meteorological Organization's (WMO) report on ozone depletion, for example, estimates the depletion starting from two points, 1970 and 1978-1979. The choice for the second set of data is clear; that's when satellites started measurements. The choice for the first starting point, supposedly arbitrary, is actually designed to skew the ozone record. As Figure 2 shows, the thickness of the ozone layer goes up and down considerably from year to year. The 1957 readings, however, show that the thickness of the ozone layer is about the same as it is today; thus, there has been no long-term depletion of the ozone layer. By ignoring ozone readings before 1970, the WMO begins its analysis with "a year of maximum ozone abundance for the entire 34-year record...."As Baliunas comments:
"Choosing 1970 or 1978-1979 as the starting point creates the maximum possible downward trends in ozone since then. The selections of the starting points, for example, 1976 or 1957, would indicate no significant downward trend since then. The fact that the inferred trend depends entirely on the selection of the endpoints means that the trend has not been reliably determined."
Another graphic distortion in the WMO report is to magnify ozone depletion by plotting very small changes out of context. One WMO figure, highlighted by Baliunas, omits the zero- point of the scale, so the amount of depletion looks extremely large from one data point to the next. When the WMO figure is compared with a normal presentation of the same data (Figure 2, below), as Baliunas notes, "the fluctuations in ozone are seen to be insignificant."
Figure 2: OZONE FUDGE: TWO WAYS OF LOOKING AT THE SAME DATA
The data for ozone levels in the Northern Hemisphere show insignificant variations, but can be manipulated to show what looks like a big hole, simply by changing the scale. Dr. Baliunas pointed out, in her testimony to Congress, that the World Meteorological Organization version of these ozone data (a) leaves out the zero point of the scale, making small variations seem very large. The same data viewed on a scale from 0 to 350 (b) shows the ozone fluctuations to be insignificant.
Source: from Dr. Sallie Baliunas' testimony to US Congress, Sept.,20, 1995.
The Skin Cancer Scare
How has such a technical matter as stratospheric chemistry come to dominate headlines around the world and mobilize politicians to impose a ban that will cost their nations over $5 trillion over the next few years? The answer is fear of increased numbers of deaths from skin cancer as more ultravioiet radiation hits the Earth, supposedly the result of ozone depletion. If it were not for the mass hysteria that has been created over the alleged dangers of an increase in skin cancer rates, there would be no ban on CFCs today, and newspapers would not even bother to cover the issue.
For example, during the same four- to six-week period that the so-called ozone hole appears over Antarctica, a nitrogen oxide (NOx) hole also develops over the same area. Both the so-called ozone hole and nitrogen oxide hole are created in Antarctica by the same natural phenomena, but mentioning this and other unusual phenomena over Antarctica would raise too many questions in people's minds about the extraordinary chemistry that takes place at the end of the polar winter in Antarctica, and would lead people to question the ozone scare. So, the NOx hole is never meritioned.
Let's look at the UV/cancer theory. First, the scare stories about UV and ozone depletion are based on increases in UV that are minuscule, compared with the natural variations in UV-B that are determined by one's altitude and distance from the Equator. Second, there is no evidence that levels of UV-B have increased at the surface of the Earth, despite the claims of worldwide ozone depletion. And third, biological research now indicates that it is not UV-B that causes the malignant types of skin cancer, but UV-A, which is not screened out by the ozone layer.
The ozone depletion theory predicts that there will be a 10 to 20 percent increase in the level of UV-B radiation at the surface as a result of ozone depletion. This might seem like a large increase, unless one knows something about the geometry of the Sun and the Earth. UV-B varies by 5,000 percent from the Equator to the Poles. It also varies with altitude. This is the result of simple geometry: There is more sunlight exposure at the Equator and the atmosphere is thinner in the mountains, so more UV-B gets through.
In midlatitudes such as that of the United States, a 1 percent increase in UV-B is the equivalent of moving 6 miles south (closer to the Equator). Thus, the alleged increase in UV radiation, according to the theory, would be the equivalent of what a person would receive if he were to move 60 to 120 miles south the equivalent of moving from New York City to Philadelphia.
Actual instrumental measurements of ultraviolet radiation at the surface show that there has been no increase in UV levels, despite widespread claims of ozone depletion in northern latitudes. Just as with the ozone layer, the levels of UV radiation go through tremendous seasonal fluctuations. The amount of incoming UV radiation is modulated by several factors, including the angle of the Sun at that particular time of the year (lowest in winter), incoming solar radiation, sun spots, thickness of the ozone layer, meteorological conditions (cloud cover, and so on) and pollution. Accurately determining the amount of UV radiation requires long-term madings over an extensive network. Curiously enough, while tens of billions of dollars have been spent on "ozone research" almost no money has been spent on UV readings at the surface.
The most extensive study to date of UV-B radiation at the surface is that conducted by Joseph Scotto and his collaborators at the National Cancer Institute. The study, published in the Feb. 12, 1988, issue of Science,(6) presented evidence that the amount of UV-8 reaching ground level stations across the United States had not increased, but in fact, had decreased between 1974 and 1985. Instead of rejoicing at the results, the promoters of the ozone depletion scare saw to it that the network of observing stations was shut down, by cutting its funding (less than $500,000 out of more than $1.75 billion in research funds to study "climate change").
One of the recent attempts to contradict the Scotto study was an article by J.B. Kerr and C.T. McElroy, published in Science magazine in 1993, claiming an upward trend in UV radiation over Toronto. (7) The results were front-page news intemationally, but when it was soon demonstrated by other scientists that the so-called trend was based on faulty statistical manipulation (8) this reverse got little publicity. The entire "rise" in UV was based on readings taken during the last 3 days of five years of measurementes!
A correct statistical analysis showed that the trend in UV was zero that is to say, the amount of UV had neither increased nor decreased over the five-year period). Interestingly enough, the Canadian study had been rejected for publication by Nature. At the time the Canadian paper was submitted to Science, F. Sherwood Rowland was the president of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, publisher of Science. According to knowledgeable sources, Rowland rammed through the publication of the paper despite its obvious errors.
Taking Another look at UV-8 and Cancer
In July 1993, Dr. Richard Setlow of Brookhaven National Laboratory published the results of an experiment indicating that malignant melanoma skin cancers are caused not by UV-B, the part of the UV spectrum filtered out by the ozone layer, but by UV-A, a part of the spectrum that is not affected by the thickness of the ozone layer. (9) In other words, this research indicates that the thickness of the ozone layer is irrelevant to the rates of malignant melanoma, which is the fundamental threat allegedly posed by ozone depletion.
But what about the dramatic increases in reparted cases of skin cancer? The increases are real, but they cannot be blamed on ozone depletion. This is the determination of the world's foremost photobiologists working on the effects of sunlight on the body, who gathered for an international conference on "Ozone, Sun, Cancer" in Paris in May 1994. (10) These experts concluded that present rates of skin cancer are caused by a variety of factors, but "the main determinant is individual behavior" in other words, overexposure to the sun, the use of tanning parlors, and, perhaps, the use of sunscreen lotions.
Many scientists pointed out that the range of ultraviolet radiation that causes malignant melanoma is UV-A, thus confirming the research by Dr. Richard Setlow of Brookhaven National Laboratory. Previously, it had been considered that UV-A was the "safe" range of ultraviolet light, while UV-B, which is partially filtered by the ozone layer, was the "unsafe" portion of the spectrum.
Norwegian scientists J. Moan and A. Dahlback state the point strongly: (11) "Increasing rates of CMM [cutaneous malignant melanoma] are not caused by an ongoing ozone depletion." The scientists further note:
"In some studies a tendency of ozone depletion (= 0.03% per year in summer and = 0.27% per year in winter) has been reported also for northern latitudes (55°N). Could this be the reason for the alarming increase in the incidence rates of skin cancer observed over several decades in several countries? Obviously not, since the increasing trend in UV found from 1968 to l990 is too small (only a few percent) to account for the tripling of the CMM incidence rates found for the same period. [See Figure 3.] Thus, the increasing rates of skin cancer seem to be due to changing habits of solar exposure; A strong indication for this is that the increasrng trend of CMM in Norway is lowest for CMM arising on the face and largest for CMM arising on the female breasts. This is likely due to the introduction of the topless swimming suit in the years after 1970."
INCREASING RATES OF MALIGNANT MELANOMA IN NORWAY (1960-1990)The alarming increses in skin cancer (cutaneous malignant melanoma) in Norway in the past two decades (a) are not caused by ozone depletion, according to Norwegian scientists J. Moan and A. Dahlback. The increases in ultraviolet (b) are far too small for the tripling of skin cancer rates. They blame sunbathing and the introduction of topless swimming suits for the increases.
Source: Adapted from J. Moan and A. Dahlback, 1995.
Moan and Dahlback also address the beneficial aspects of UV radiation. In fact, there is a body of evidence indicating that both sunlight and UV-B províde health benefits. As Moan and Dahlback point out, when UV-B strikes the skin, it turns cholesterol molecules into the hormone cholecalciferol, vitamin D, which plays a crucial role in the body's calcium and potassium chemistry. Therefore, they write:
"Since vitamin D seems to have a protective effect against the development of several forms of cancer, including breast cancer, prostate cancer, gastrointestinal cancer and CMM, an ozone depletion may also have a beneficial effect, notably for persons that get.small exposures to solar radiation. In fact, the increase in mortality rates of colon cancer from south to north in USA has been attributed to the protective role of Sun-induced vitamin D. Similar south-north gradients exist also for breast and ovary cancer, notably for postmenopausal women. An improvement of the vitamin D status may also be preventive with respect to osteomalacia in elderly people".
The Norwegian scientists also have an uncharacteristically harsh criticism of those who have promoted other UV-ozone scares, such as Prof. J.C. Van der Leun, a Dutch dermatologist, who has warned of epidemics of cataracts, immune suppression, and photoaging of the skin. Moan and Dahlbeck state that "even though it is well documented that UV radiation can cause such effects, little epidemiological data seem to be available for an evalution of their significance in relation to ozone depletion."
A Policy of Genocide
The latest atmospheric data, presented here, confirm that the ozone depletion theory is a scientific fraud. In fact, the Montreal Protocol banning CFCs was signed in 1987, despite the fact that there was no scientific evidence to support such a ban, and that the people who organized the treaty knew that there was no such evidence. Richard Elliot Benedick, the U.S. State Department official responsible for negotiating the Montreal Protocol, says so plainly in his bookOzone Diplomacy. (12)
"The Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer mandated significant reductions in the use of several extremely useful chemicals.... By their action, the signatory countries sounded the death knell for an important part of the international chemical industry, with implications for billions of dollars of investments and hundreds of jobs in related sectors. The protocol did not simply prescribe limits on these chemicals based on "best available technology," which had been a traditional way of reconciling environmental goals with economic interests. Rather, the negotiators established target dates for replacing products that had become synonymous with modern standards of living, even though the requisite technologies did not yet exist.
At the time of the negotiations and signing, no measurable evidence of damage existed. Thus, unlike environmental agreements of the past, the treaty was not a response to harmful developments or events, but rather a preventive action on a global scale".
What Benedick knew, but did not say, is that the ban on CFCs would directly and indirectly cause millions of deaths per year, and that he supports this mass murder.
Seven years after the Montreal Protocol banning CFCs, the "evidencé of damage" still does not exist, and the Montreal Protocol has served as the shining example for new international environmental treaties. The Climate Treaty, the Biodiversity Treaty, and others, have been signed despite the lack of scientific evidence, the argument being that the delegates are just following the example of the Montreal Protocol.
The ban on the production of CFCs took effect on Jan. 1, 1996, in the United States. This event, which most people may not even notice until their car air conditioners break down, is earth-shaking. The production of one of the most useful chemicals irivented by man literally, the life-blood of the world.'s food refrigeration system is ending.
By preserving the food iupply and keeping it wholesome, refrigeration is one ot the major factors in the dramatic increase in human life expectancy in the past half-century. By removing these inexpen-sive, benign, and efficient coolants, the Montreal Protocol measures put at risk the poorest popula-tions in the world, those for whom the more expensive refrigerant replacements will make the cost of refrigeration prohibitive. The entire worldwide food chain depends on CFCs. CFCs are used in refrigeration systems at the time crops are harvested and during transportation, storage, and distribution. This refrigeration "cold chain" depends on a steady supply of CFCs and HCFCs. (13)
There are no drop-in substitutes for CFCs and HCFCs for most refrigerators, freezers, and refrigerated transports, which means that as supplies disappear, existing equipment shuts down or is scrapped. Most nations of the world cannot afford to replace this equipment. As a result of the ban on CFCs, the cold chain is already collapsing in the poorer areas of the world, particularly Africa and Eastern Europe.
Public health also suffers from this cold chain collapse, because most vaccines and many medicines need to be refrigerated. In addition, a ban on the agricultural pesticide and fumigant methyl bromide, for which there is no available chemical substitute, means that many countries will lose the ability to export their crops, and that dangerous pests will spread to other areas of the world to destroy crops and attack people. Methyl bromide is crucial to preserve food in storage, particularly grains. More than one third of the world's grain supply will be lost if methyl bromide is banned.
In 1992, iaternational refrigeration experts estimated that the ban on CFCs was going to kill between 20 to 40 million people every year by the end of the decade, through hunger, starvation, and foodborne diseases. This is now an underestimate, given the addition of methyl bromide to the list of chemicals to be banned, and given the emergence of new and old diseases.
Can the Montreal Protocol and this nation's ozone policy be reversed? Sherwood Rowland and his colleagues often assert that there are "no credible" scientists or science opposing their theories. Their Big Lie stands exposed.
Rogelio A. Maduro is the co-author of "The Holes in tHe Ozone Scare: The Scientific Evidence That the Sky Isn't Falling", and an associate editor of 21st Century Science & Technology magazine.
- Interview wilh Ulrich Grossman, head af the Crista Project at the University of Wuppertal, Germany, Nov. 15, 1995.
- KjeII Henriksen and Vahentin Roldugin, 1995. Geophysical Research Letters, Dec. 1, pp. 3219-3222.
- A. Rabbe and S.H.H. Larsen, 1992. "Ozone Variations in the Northern Hemisphere Due to Dynamic Processes in the Atmosphere, Journal of Atmospberic and Terrestrial Physics, Vol. 54, pp. 1107-1112; and A. Rabbs and S.H.H. Larsen, 1992. "Ozone 'Minihole' over Northem Scandinavia." Joumal of Atmospheric and Terrestrial Physics, Vol. 54, pp. 1447-1451.
- Thormod Henriksen, 1994. "Ozone Layer and Ultraviolet Radiation," From the World of Physics, Vol. 4, pp. 108-114.
- Sallie Baliunas, 1995. "Ozone Variations and Accelerated Phaseout of CFCs," Testimony presented at hearings ot the House Science Committes's Subcommittee on Energy and Environment, Sept. 20.
- Joseph Scotto, Gerald Cotton, Frederick Urback, et al., 1988. "Biologically Effective Ultraviolet Radiation: Surface Measurements in the United States, 1974 to 1985", Science, Vol. 239 (Feb. 12), pp. 762-764.
- J.B. Kerr, and C.T. McElroy, 1993. "Evidence for Large Upward Trends of Ultraviolet-B Radiation Linked to Ozone Depletion," Science, Vol. 262 (Nov. 12), p. 1032.
- P.J. Michaels, S.F. Singer, P.C. Knappenberger, 1994. "Analyzing Ultraviolet-B Radiation, Is There a Trend?" Science, Vol. 264, p. 1341.
- R. Setlow, st al. 1993. "Wavelengths Effective in Induction of Malignant Melanoma," Proceedings of the Nationel Academy of Sciences, Vol. 90 (Juty). pp. 666$4667.
- The most important papers presented at the conference were published in book form: Ozone, Sun, Cancer, edited by L. Dubertist, R. Santus, and P. Morliere (Paris: Les Editions Inserm, 1995).
- J. Moan and A. Dahlback, 1995. "Ultraviolet Radiation and Skin Cancer. Cutaneous Malignant Mslanoma," in Ozone, Sun, Cancer; see note 10.
- Richard Elliot Benedick, 1991. Ozone Diplomacy, New Directions in Safeguarding the Planet (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press), pp. 1-2.
- D.W. Kaminski, 1988. "Refrigeration and Worldwide Food Economy," presentation at the Intemational Refrigeration Conference of the Intemational Refrigeration Institute in Paris; cited at length in The Holes in lhe Ozone Scare, p. 187. Prof. Kaminski's work was done at the Institute of Agricultural and Foodstuff Economy, Warsaw. Even Robert Watson, head of ths Ozone Trends Panel that was instrumental in setting up the ozone depletion issue, admitted to joumalist Alston Chase in 1989 that "probably more people would die from food poisoning as a consequence of inadequate refrigeration than would die from ozone depletion."
TOP OF PAGESherwood Rowland (left) at a 1993 NATO Advanced Workshop on ozone depletion, where he got into difficulty answering a question on why there are no measured increases in UV if there is ozone depletion. Rowland put the blame on the measuring devices, but Dan erger (right), inventor of the devices, said that was not the case.
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The theory that man-made CFCs would deplete the ozone layer is one of many theories claiming that ozone depletion would lead to doomsday. The theory originated in March 1971, when James McDonald, an atmospheric physicist from the University of Arizona, testified at congressional hearings of the Super-Sonic Transport (SST) program. At the time there was a major fight to kill the SST program, but all the arguments of the opposition had failed.
McDonald presented his theory that water vapor emissions from the SST were going to wipe out the ozone layer, allowing a large amount of ultraviolet radiation to penetrate to the surface of the Earth, which would allegedly cause a massive increase in skin cancer incidence. The news media seized upon the skin cancer story and made it the issue of the day. Funding for the SST was killed, and the ozone depletion theory was born. McDonald had previously testified in Congress as an ardent proponent of the theory that UFOs -unidentified flying object- regularly visited the Earth, causing major electrical blackouts in the process of recharging their alien spacecrafts.
Once the skin cancer scare hab been established as an issue that would get the news media's attention, ozone depletion theories began to proliferate. Some maintained that the ozone layer was going to get wiped out by nitrogen oxides from atmospheric nuclear tests, by nitrous oxides from nitrogen fertilizer, by methane from cows and rice paddies, by chlorine from the Space Shuttle exhaust, by acid rain, and by emissions from pesticides, fumigants, and so on.
Enter Rowland and Molina
The theory aiming that CFCs would deplete the ozone layer was theory number 7, invented by F. Sherwood Rowland and Mario Molina in December 1973. Rowland was then head of the chemistry department at the University of California at Irvine, and Molina was his assistant. At the time, the first five ozone depletion theories (SST-water, SST-nitrogen oxides, atmospheric nuclear tests, fertilizers, and methane gases from cows) had faded back into the background. The theory then in vogue (#6) was that the chlorine from the Space Shuttle exhaust would cause ozone holes over Florida and deplete the ozone layer worldwide. Rowland and Molina, however, found a much better source of chlorine in the atmosphere than the Space Shuttle: CFCs.
The Rowland and Molina theory says that CFCs are so inert that there are no sinks (nothing to capture or destroy them) in the troposphere (the portion of the atmosphere below the stratosphere. Therefore, CFCs have very long lifetimes in the atmosphere.
According to the theory, the most common CFCs, CFC-11 and CFC-12, both very long lived, remain in the atmosphere about 50 and 120 years, respectively. After 5 years of cruising in the troposphere, the CFCs are transported into the troposphere. There, the ultraviolet rays break them up into "free" chlorine atoms (those that can combine with other elements) and other molecules. This chlorine atom then supposedly breaks down ozone molecules. The theory claims that this is a catalytic reaction, thus one single hyperactive chlorine atom may destroy hundred of thousands of ozone molecules. This reaction only stops when the chlorine atoms bind with other atoms or molecules known as "reservoir compounds".
Not the Real Story
Fortunately, Rowland and Molina's version of the atmospheric chemistry is not the real story. The hypothetical threat to the ozone is based on a set of flawed axioms and assumptions fed into computer models that spew out doomsday predictions. The required sequence of chemical reactions has never been observed in the laboratory. It is all supposition. For example, this theory neither predicted, nor can explain the existence of the ozone hole over Antarctica --another new theory that had to be manufactured to explain that:
If any of the axioms and assumptions underlying the ozone depletion theory
are proven wrong, the whole edifice falls. The ozone depletion theory assumes,
for example, that there are:
the theory has been proved wrong on every one of these assumptions, The promoters of the fraud protect themselves by adding the caveat "significant" to these assertions (for example, that there are not "significant" natural sources of chlorine, but in practice they dismiss all factors other than those they choose.
Wrong Axioms, Wrong Methodology
More important than these errors is the fact that the methodology used to arrive at this set of beliefs is wrong. What has happened in the ozone depletion theory is perhaps the best example.of the New Age transformation of science into a "virtual reality" game in which computer models have replaced reality. Scientific truth, real world observations, nature, the biosphere, are all swept aside by the irrational belief that whatever image or numbers appear on the computer screen is reality. The scientific hypothesis has been replaced by "mathematical models" or, more precisely, the theory of "systems analysis".
These models are made up of collections of mathematical and chemical formulas that purport to represent the behavior of the atmosphere and its components. The models are "validated" by the same hand picked group of "experts" that compare the results of one model versus another --but not versus the real world.
Dissenting voices are summarily excluded from the deliberations or the complaints
are simply ignored. This is called the "assessment
process". Then, when all models
are compared, a "consensus"
is formed and an edict is issued: Mankind faces doom because some model says
this or that action will cause some damaging effects a half-century to a century
down the line. These edicts are then promoted in the news media, and opposing
views or evidence are seldom, if ever, mentioned.
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Crista, Cryogenic Infrared Spectrometers and Telescopes for the Atmosphere, is a group of infrared instruments sensing the middle atmosphere (10 km to 100 km) from an Earth orbit. Spas is the acronym for Shuttle Pallet Satellite, the spacecraft carrying Crista. It is launched into Earth orbit by the Space Shuttle and deployed in free flight for several days, at a distance between 20 and 120 km from the Shuttle.
Crista's measurements achieve and unprecedented spatial resolution; vertical resolution is 1.5 km, and horizontal resolution is 500 km by 650 km. The instrument is designed to measure small- and medium-scale dynamical structures in the middle atmosphere. Such structures, which until now have been inaccesible to satellite measurements, have strong influence on the photochemistry and energy budget of the atmosphere.
The Crista experiment uses minor constituents in the atmosphere as tracers for atmospheric dynamics (waves, turbulence, and so on). The emissions of these trace gases in the middle- and far-infrared are determined by means of the limb-scanning technique, and yields the spatial distribution of these gases.
High spatial resolution is obtained (a) by high measurement speed and (b) by using three telescopes that measure simultaneously in three different view directions. High measuring speed is obtained by cooling all parts of the optics by cryogenic temperatures. Satellite measurements show that many parameters of the middle atmosphere exhibit large-scale variations (over several thousand km). These disturbances are quite frequent and often of considerable magnitude.
Small-scale structures of the order of a few hundred to a few thousand kilometers were previously determined under favorable conditions by rocket, balloon, and ground based measurements. These can be quite pronounced, but htese measurements yielded local snapshots only. Hence, little was known about the frequency of occurrence of small- and medium-scale structures.
Crista is the first attempt to determine the global distribution and the frequency
of occurrence of such structures. Du
ring the relatively short flight time of a Space Shuttle mission, Crista recorded as much data as a typical satellite instrument does in half a year -more than 50,000 images in eight days.
Crista was also able to determine the large-scale structures in the atmosphere persent during its deployment. Dynamical structures on all scales have string influence, especially on the photochemistry of the middle atmosphere. For that reason, the Crista mission is complemented by an experiment on the Spas that can measure radicals in the middle atmosphere, Mahrsi (Middle Atmosphere High Resolution Spectograph Investigation).
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