Evaporation Data Refute Claims of Global Warming
Reference
Peterson, T.C., Golubev, V.S. and Groisman, P. Ya.  1995.  Evaporation losing its strength.  Nature 377: 687-688.

What was done
The authors derived five regional trends of pan evaporation from data obtained from 746 homogeneous reporting stations in the United States - (1) Eastern US, (2) Western US - and 190 such stations in the former Soviet Union - (3) European, (4) Middle Asian, (5) Siberia - for the last half of the 20th century.  The US data employed were averages of mean daily pan evaporation from May to September, while the data from the former Soviet Union were for months when there was no ice in the pans.

What was learned
All of the regions exhibited downward trends in pan evaporation over the last half of the 20th century, with four of them (all but the Middle Asian region) registering significance at the 99% level or better.

What it means
In the words of the authors, "the downward trend in pan evaporation over most of the United States and former Soviet Union implies that, for large regions of the globe, the terrestrial evaporation component of the hydrological cycle has been decreasing."  They also note that this observation "corresponds well with both decreases in maximum summer temperatures over these regions and a decrease in growing-season degree-days over the Siberian and European former Soviet Union."  Speculating on the cause of these related trends, the authors suggest "increases in cloud cover, especially low cloud cover," since "pan evaporation has been decreasing and is correlated negatively with cloud cover ... for the five regions."

Clearly, these related decreasing half-century trends in pan evaporation, maximum summer temperatures, and growing-season degree-days are all just the opposite of what would be expected in the climate alarmists' illusionary world of "unprecedented" global warming.  But, they are just what would be expected in the real world of observed contemporaneous reductions in solar radiation reaching the planet's surface (see our Journal Review Solar Radiation Reductions at the Earth's Surface).  Hence, we can only conclude, as the data always force us to conclude, that the unprecedented warming so highly hyped by those who yearn for adoption of the Kyoto Protocol is nothing more than, well, nothing.


Reviewed 5 December 2001
Copyright 2001.  Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change  (www.co2science.org).

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