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Calentamiento Global y
Otras Tendencias de la Temperatura

Un análisis de Timo Niroma, Helsinki, Finlandia

¿Hay en Helsinki, Finlandia, signos
del llamado Calentamiento Global?

Tendencias de temperatura entre 1829-2004

 

El Período de 1950-1987 comparado con 1988-2004.

  • Representación gráfica del frío (o del intento de calentamiento) y comparación de 1950-1987 con 1988-2004


    El Período de 1940-1987: frío entre dos períodos cálidos

  • El Período Más Frío de 1940-1981
  • The relatively cold years in 1950-1973
  • El Nuevo comienzo del Período Ca´lido Moderno o las rarezas de 1974-1975 y 1985-1987

    El Verdadero Calentamiento Ocurrió entre 1879-1930

  • Enfriamiento Global en 1830-1867 y calentamiento global en 1867-1929.

  • RESUMEN

  • El Período de Apertura comentado.

    ¿Alguna señal del llamado Calentamiento global en Uppsala, Suecia entre 1739-1999?

  • Calentamiento Global después del Mínimo Maunder del Siglo 16, el Mínio Dalton a principios de los 1800s, más posteriores cambios en la temperatura.

    BAJO INVESTIGACIÓN: LA PEQUEÑA EDAD DE HIELO
    Y EL PERÍODO CÁLIDO MEDIEVAL

  • Mínimo Maunderen 1640-1700.
  • La temperatura durante el Período Cálido Medieval entre 900-1200, ¿ha sido igualada, superada, o todavía no se alcanzó?

  • ¿Qué es esto?


    Abstracto

    En este estudio trato de obtener la respuesta a la cuestión de si existen algunas indicaciones de un calentamiento generalizado o alguna otra tendencia en las temperaturas de Helsinki. Para lograr esto, hago las siguientes preguntas:

    1. La temperatura en Helsinki se ve muy pareja desde 1988 hasta 2004. Hay alguna señal aquí de calentamiento global o existen algunas otras tendencias durante etos 17 años?

    2. ¿Los cambios de la actividad del Sol se ven en los datos de 1930-2004?

    3. ¿Cuál fue la década más cálida: la de los años 30 o la de los 90?

    4. Un período un poco más frío reinó enter 1950-1987 entre el Período Cálido Moderno en 1930-1949 y desde 1988. ¿Pero cuánto más frío? ¿Y el período más frío lo fue durante todo ese tiempo?

    5. ¿Cómo se comportó la temperatura desde 1830 a 1930? Es conocido que hubo una subida, pero de cuánto, y cuándo fue su pico?

    ¿Hay algunas señales de calentamiento global u otras tendencias en la temperatura de Helsinki entre 1994-2004?

    Un período cálido (definido como un período donde la temperatura anual está en el rango de 5 y 7º C) comenzó en Helsinki en 1988 y ha continuado desde entonces. De hecho, los años 1982-194 ya pertenecían a esta categoría, pero los ultrafríos años en 1985-87 que rompieron récords interrumpieron este período, de modo que comienzo el análisis con el ininterrumpido período de 1988-2004.

    Un reclamo común de quienes son partidarios del período cálido provocado por la actividad humana es que el Sol podría ser un buen candidato para la oscilación de la temperatura hasta alrededor de 1850 o 1900, pero después de esa fecha, y especialmente después de 1980, es cuando mucho de una muy poca particiapción. A causa de que el supuesto efecto invernadero depende principalmente (como afirman los activistas) del CO2, la temperatura debería estar en continuo ascenso en paralelo con el aumento del CO2. De hecho, los modeos implican una subida acumulativa. De modo que veamos cuál es el tipo de subida, o si hay siquiera alguna subida.

    For the whole period of 1988-2004 the mean annual temperature in Helsinki has been 6.1 degrees Celsius (SD=6). The minimum temperature has been 4.9 degrees and the maximum 7.2 degrees. Half-degrees categories show that the most favored category is 6.1-6.5 degrees, which contains 7 years or 41% of all. In the range of 5.1-6.5 degrees lies 13 years or 76%. The three hot years (above 6.5 degrees) occurred in 1989, 1990 and 2000. The one "cold" year (4.9 degrees) was the year 1996.

    A linear regression shows a small cooling, not warming from 1988 to 2004. The trend value for the 17-year period is -0.02 degrees per year or together -0.3 degrees from 6.2 degrees to 5.9 degrees.


    But the graph is not exactly linear. Using a polynomial fit we get a curve than begins with 6.6 degrees and ends with 6.3 degrees but between these high ends in 1988 and 2004 goes thru 5.9 degrees in 1997.


    Distance Weighted Least Squares gives a probably best fit we can get. It has two tops. The first one is 6.5 degrees in 1989-1990 and the second one 6.2 degrees in 2000. The deep low of 5.7 degrees occurs in 1995-1996 and new begins after 2000 having reached 6.0 in 2004.


    Comparing this to sunspot activity, we get a good correlation (which of course is not a proof of cause, but does not support the hypothesis of Sun's influence having vanished.) There were sunspot maxima in 1989-1990 and 2000 and a minimum in 1996. The first maximum reached 160 Wolfs in 1989 and the next maximum in 2000 reached 120 Wolfs. Now we are going towards a minimum, expected to be in the end of 2006 or in the beginning of 2007.

    Two graphs: One of temperature, the other of sunspots. But which is which?

    The temperature in Helsinki, smoothed from 1988-2004 to 1989-2003. The temperatures are in tenths of Celsius (e.g. 55 = 5.5).

    The sunspots in Wolf scale, smoothed from 1988-2004 to 1989-2003.

    Cold and warm quarters in 1988-2004.

    I have made a crosstable with the year and its four quarters. The table contains each year divided in four parts (from January to March (1q), from April to June (2q), from July to September (3q) and from October to December (4q)). The four coldest quarters are remarked by ----, the four warmest quarters are remarked by ++++ .

    ------------------------------------------------------------------
    year /   1q   2q   3q   4q /   1q   2q   3q   4q                    
    ------------------------------------------------------------------
    1988 / -2.3 10.4 15.8 -0.2        ++++      ----           
    1989 /  1.3 10.8 15.0  1.3   ++++ ++++                                     
    1990 /  0.2 10.4 14.1  2.2   ++++ ++++ ----                                          
    1991 / -2.4  8.2 15.4  3.6        ----      ++++                            
    1992 / -0.2  9.8 15.0  1.1   ++++                    
    1993 / -0.9  9.8 12.8  0.4             ---- ----                    
    1994 / -5.6  8.6 16.0  2.1   ---- ----                     
    1995 / -0.4  9.9 14.7  0.4   ++++           ----                  
    1996 / -5.8  8.2 14.3  2.7   ---- ---- ----
    1997 / -2.0  9.1 16.6  1.0             ++++                       
    1998 / -2.6  8.9 14.2  1.1             ----    
    1999 / -4.2 10.3 15.9  3.2   ----           ++++                                       
    2000 / -1.4 10.0 14.5  5.7                  ++++                                    
    2001 / -3.5  9.5 16.5  3.0             ++++ ++++                                     
    2002 / -0.8 10.9 16.7 -2.5        ++++ ++++ ----                                
    2003 / -5.0  8.2 16.5  2.7   ---- ---- ++++                            
    2004 / -3.4  9.5 15.6  0.7                       totally average
    (2005/ -3.2  9.7 16.3                            average)      
    ------------------------------------------------------------------
    


    Quarterly differences compared with the Solar activity.

    The first quarter (January, February, March) = winter

    All the four warm winters occur during the first part of the period 1988-2004: The years are 1989-1990, 1992 and 1995. The correlation is good with the extra high sunspot maximum from 1988-1992. The warm winter in 1995 may not be a lonely case: it seems that just before the minimum Sun has great bursts. The cold winters, in this case 1994, 1996, 1999 and 2003 seem also to have one exception. 1994 and 2003 correlate with deep dive towards silence in the Sun and 1996 is right in the minimum. The year 1999 probably is caused by the high el Niño in 1998, common occurrence here in North: cold winters follow high el Niños.

    Now we must make some questions: If the first sunspot maximum in 1988-1992 really caused the warm winters in 1989-1992, why didn't the second maximum in 1999-2002 not cause? Actually in 2002 there was a rather warm winter (5th warmest), but not in 2001, 2003 or 2004. A simple answer would be that the latter sunspot maximum was lower than the former (160 v. 120 at peak), but an sich that doesn't explain the phenomenon, it shows only a probable correlation. A corollary question is: why were there no cold winters before 1994, when the six coldest winters occurred in 1994, 1996, 1999, 2001 and 2003-2004? The winters 1994 and 1996 are explainable by the sun's activity, but why was it warm in 1989-1992 and cold in 1999-2004?

    During the first period we were recovering from the coldies in 1950-1987. The albedo here in North was low: the ice cover was shrinking, the snowline went norther up, the seas were still cold causing weak evaporation causing weak cloudiness causing lack of snow. During the second period the situation had changed. The seas had warmed causing cloudy and snowy winters and the albedo must have went up a bit.

    The second quarter (April, May, June) = spring

    The difference between the coldest (1996) and warmest (1989) winter was 7.1 degrees. Considering this, the difference between the coldest and warmest spring (2002) was very modest, only 2.7 degrees. So why bother to search anything from spring. Anyway I do it. The spread of the cold springs is large: 1991, 1994, 1996, 2003 and the 5th coldest would be 1998. Ok, there is a continued cold from winter in 1994, 1996 and 2003, so the above explanation for these would be enough.

    But the cold spring in 1991 is an anomaly looking from our framework. Now there is a clear explanation. March was very snowy, May very rainy, the growing sunshine could not but radiate back in the space in quantities. The May was already colder than normal. And then the Pinatubo volcano exploded in the beginning of June blocking part of the solar radiation for a month (not longer, anyway).

    The warm springs obey our solar framework. They occurred in 1988-1990 and 2002 and so need no more explanation.

    The third quarter (July, August, September) = summer

    The four cold summers occurred in 1990, 1993, 1996 and 1998, the next ones would be 1995 and 2000. The summers 1993-1996 would be in accord with our framework, but not the summers 1990, 1998 and 2000. Does the framework function so that low solar activity chills both winters and summers, but high solar activity warms only the winters, but chills the summers. Has this behaviour something to do with the el Niño? Of the six coldest summers, five are in the narrow range of 14.1-14.7 degrees. The summer 1993 makes an exception with its 12.8 degrees.

    The solar activity dropped very rapidly from high to low in 1992-1994. In 1993 there was a very great difference between cold in very North and warm in more Southern latitudes, which caused much rain and very strong winds, even many hurricanes in US. The summer 1993 seems to have been the end period for the super-high Sun and super-high winter-spring temperatures.

    Quite obviously the summers did not get their share of the activity of the Sun, because the winters had to warm first to warm the oceans to cause evaporation to increase and water vapour to catch the warmth of the activated Sun. This happened first in 1997, during the rapid rise in Sun's activity after the minimum of 1996. But now it seems likely that the heat accumulated first in the Pacific to cause the super el Niño of 1998. Our Atlantic Ocean had given good tries already in 1994 and again in 1999, but it succeeded only in 2001 and the hot summers continued for three years until 2003. The four warmest years during the period 1988-2004 occurred in Helsinki in 1997 and 2001-2003. The temperatures were in a very narrow range, from 16.5 to 16.7 degrees. The 2004 temperature was already one degree colder.

    The fourth quarter (October, November, December) = fall

    When we look at the cold years, we have here a very odd phenomenon. Of the four coldest falls, 1988, 1993, 1995 and 2002, the last one or 2002 was far the coldest, -2.5 degrees, the other three being near plus minus zero. The only exceptional thing I can find is the almost high solar wind which had been almost continuous since already from August. Did it somehow cause the cold polar air to stream south here in NH? The cold falls in 1993 and 1995 are in accord with yearlong cold QBO oscillations from late 1993 to early 1994 and again during the sunspot minimum from late 1995 to the summer 1996.

    The warm falls occurred in 1991 and from 1999 to 2001, the 2000 fall being extra warm. As if the maximum had first warmed the fall and from 2001 the summer. The warm 1991 fall may have been caused by the Pinatubo shield which still probably hindered the escape of warm into space.

    Graphs can tell more than words, quarters 1988-2004.


    The first quarter (winter). A cooling of 3.1 degrees.

    The second quarter (spring). A cooling of 0.6 degrees.

    The third quarter (summer). A warming of 1.5 degrees.

    The fourth quarter. A warming of 0.5 degrees.

    Yearly differences commented.

    The years 1983-1984, with their main temperature of 6.1 degrees, clearly belong to the Modern Warm Period continuing the legacy of the 1930's. But before the full blossoming, in 1985 began an anomalous cold in winter. Beginning with May the rest of the year was however quite normal. Beginning in December 1986, including the all-time cold winter 1987 and continuous cold until September 1987 made the year 1987 really exceptional. Speculations about the ice age beginning was common in many writings.

    But suddenly in May there happened a total change: the climate warmed and with slight exceptions this warm period lasted a year until the April 1989. Especially the winter 1989 was anomalously warm. This awakened now the prophets, who began to talk rightaway with the coined term global warming and speculations of a runaway warming (positive feedback) were taken in use and the blamed reason was man-made CO2. Just two years after the coldest winter since at least 1829. This can be considered a little short-sighted. In fact there is something we really don't understand: During the whole observation period of nearly 180 years from 1829 there is nothing equal this: only two years after the coldest winter in 170 years (that is 1987) there is the warmest winter in 170 years (that is 1989).

    The warm period continued in 1990, especially in the first part of the year. Then it began to get a little colder, which culminated in the really cold spring 1991, especially from April to June. But after that there was with a few exceptions relatively warm, or at least normal, until there came the summer 1993, which surprisingly was cold. From thereon the oscillation of the temperature began again. It was mainly cold until June 1994, then again a warm period until June 1995. After July 1995 there was mainly cold until November 1998 when the el Niño warm began to be felt even here in Helsinki. Then there were an expectionally warm period until September 2002, the August of 2002 catching the all-time (at least since 1829) warm record of August or 19.4 degrees.

    One exception during this warm period there was: a cold May in 1999 (the coldest in 1983-2004). The reason for this cold and anomalous month is explained in my study http://personal.inet.fi/tiede/tilmari/sunspots.html (The Jovian perihelion with the Sun).

    The fall 2002 was cold and the cold climate continued until April 2003. The July 2003 was exceptionally hot (the warmest during since the 1930's), but from October 2003 there has been a normal temperature in the framework 1988-2004. Actually the year 2004 is the only year during this period without any peaks either towards cold or warm measured by quarters of the year. The winter (Jan to March) in 2005 is also normal in average (although containing great inside oscillations). The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) since the overall record-warm 2000 (7.2 degrees in annual terms) is seen in 2001-2004: 2001 and 2003 the annual temperatures were 5.6-5.9 degrees, in 2002 and 2004 6.1-6.2 degrees.

    Sunspot activity compared with the variation of temperature in 1988-2004.

    The yearly sunspot number (Wolf) compared to the number of warm and cold quartersiles:

        Wolf cold (-) and warm (+) quartersiles
    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    1988 100  + -
    1989 158 ++
    1990 143 ++ - 
    1991 146  - +    
    1992  94 +       
    1993  55   --   
    1994  30 --  
    1995  17 +  - 
    1996   9 ---     
    1997  23   + 
    1998  62   -
    1999  96 -  + 
    2000 117    +
    2001 111   ++ 
    2002 102  ++-  
    2003  66 --+ 
    2004  42    
    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    

    1. A very sizable rise both in 1988 and 1989.
    2. The maximum is two-peaked: the greater is in 1989 and the secondary in 1991 with a small amount less but still almost as high in 1990.
    3. The dramatic drop in 1992 and 1993.
    4. The continuing decrease in activity in 1994-1995 until the minimum year of 1996.
    5. A small rise in 1997.
    6. A medium rise in 1998-1999 until the maximum in 2000.
    7. A very slight drop in 2001. Actually there is a secondary peak in the end of 2001 and beginning of 2002, which for this reason does not show up in the yearly numbers. So this shows up as a continuing, but still very slight drop in 2002.
    8. A sizable mean drop in 2003 and 2004. However the Sun had ecxeptionally active magnetic storms both in fall 2003 and fall 2004. The October-November 2003 burst in Sun is actually the greatest ever recorded.

    One can readily see that the Sun's activity has not ceased or been overridden by any CO2 rise. If one takes as his/her starting year 1991 and continues the analysis until 2004 one can easily dismiss the oscillations in 1992-1995, see the years 1996-1998 as last breaths of cold, and the socalled hockey stick rise in 1999-2000. But it was as warm in 1988-1992 as in these years. In 2001-2004 we are now in the range of 5.6-6.2 degrees or we have a little colder climate than in 1989-1992, and a little warmer than in 1993-1994, 1996 and 1998. But in 1995, 1997 and 1999 we had 6.1-6.2 degrees. Has there ever been any hockey stick? Yes, in years 1989 and 2000 with 7.1-7.2 degrees. No, in years 1983-1984 there was already 6.1 degrees as in the 1930's, and now the temperature in 2001-2004 has been 5.9-6.0 degrees.


    Monthly differences in temperature in 1988-2004.

    To see how this all is reflected in mean monthly temperatures, I have divided the data in two. Now with good luck, the coldest year is right in the middle of the data, and if we omit it, we get two 8-year periods to compare. The mean temperature of the first eight years (1988-1995) is 6.16 degrees and for last eight years (1997-2004) 6.11 degrees. So first of all, we can see here no global warming. It seems pretty even, the 0.05 degree fall is not statistically significant. This is because of the artificial division of the data into two in 1996. The distance of these temperatures is thus 8 years and the differences from end to end shows a 0.1 degree cooling. The trend analysis that shows a 0.2-0.3 degrees cooling is statistically significant at level .95 .

    The monthly results are as follows:

    month      1988-  1997-   difference
               1995   2004
    ------------------------------------------------------------
    January    - 1.5  - 3.7 / -2.2
    February   - 2.5  - 3.8 / -1.3
    March        0.2  - 1.1 / -1.3
    April        3.9    4.2 / +0.3
    May         10.4    9.6 / -0.8
    June        14.9   14.7 / -0.2
    July        17.7   18.5 / +0.8
    August      15.8   16.8 / +1.0 
    September   11.2   12.1 / +0.9
    October      5.8    6.1 / +0.3 
    November     0.3    1.5 / +1.2
    December   - 1.9  - 2.7 / -0.8  
    

    There is an interesting difference between the two halves. With one exception the summers and falls have warmed, but winters and late springs have been cooler. This same effect was seen in the quarter analysis. If Sun is guilty, does this mean that winters react more rapidly to lower Sun activity?

    -----------------------------------------------------------

    NO WARMING IN 1989-2004

    If we divide the period of 1989-2004 into two or to 1989-1996 and 1997-2004, we get as mean temperatures 6.0 and 6.1 degrees, statistically the same. So after 1988 there has been no global warming seen in Helsinki. As we will see, there is a warming of about 1 degree from the years 1950-1973, but no warming compared to years 1930-1939 with the same average temperature as the years 1989-2004. So let's take a look at the 1930's. Sorry that the answer became before the question, but let's go to the details.

    My Hockeystick (subspecies Niroma).


    Raw temperatures.

    Helsinki annual temperatures in tenths of Celsius in 1968-2004. There is an attempt to reach max Modern Warm Period (MWP2) beginning in 1969 from 4 degrees. The 7 degrees is achieved in 1974-1975, but a catastrophic and sudden drop then follows: the temperature falls back to 4 degrees just in one year (1976) to remain there for 3 years.

    A successful rise begins from the record cold 1987 (3 degrees) and in just two years or in 1989 we have reached the 7 degrees. After a smooth low culminating in 1996 (5 degrees) we have again the 7 degrees in 2000. During 2001-2004 the temperature has steadily been around 6 degrees. There is absolutely no trend upwards in 1988-2004.

    During the cold years 1950-1970 the correlation between Sun's activity seen as sunspots and the temperature is not as esily seen as during warm times. In cold times the QBO seems to cause a delay with complications, but during warm times the correlation is much more straightforward. To compare, there was a sunspot minimum in 1976, 1986 and 1996 and a maximum in 1979-80, 1989-90 and 2000.


    Smoothed temperatures.

    The oscillation in 1968-2004 and the lack of trend after 1988 is more clearly seen in the next figure. The temperatures are smoothed by three years (from 1968-2004 to 1969-2003) to get rid of the QBO (quasi-biennial oscillation).


    Warmest decade in the 1900's: 1930's or 1990's?

    The decadal mean of temperature in Helsinki in the 1900's was clearly warmer in the 1930's and 1990's than during the beginning from 1900 to 1930 and during the intervening 1940-1980 decades. This holds also for the previous century: during 1830-1900 every decade was colder than these two decades. Some data from Sweden and US tell that the cold period reigned throughout the 1800's beginning with the supercold Dalton minimum in 1805-1825. This makes the cold period on the Northern hemisphere as covering at least the years 1805-1925.

    But to the point. Climatologists have argued that the 1990's has been the warmest decade since at least from the year 1000, or a millennium record. Because no one does know the exact temperature of the middle ages in 1000-1400, this is a real hype. We know from many sources (tree rings, historical documents etc.) that around the year 1000 and especially during the 1100's there was warm. Warmer than today? We don't know, but at least it is possible.

    How about the warmest decade since the Little Ice Age (about 1400-1700)? We can't be even sure about that, because there are hints that the latter part of 1700's was warm, but we don't know exactly how warm. But since the Dalton minimum or from its coldest decade 1810-1820, we can on firm grounds say that there is only one rival to the 1990's warmth on the Northern Hemisphere and that is the 1930's warmth.

    Because Helsinki seems to reflect very good both other European and also US measurements (if QBO is smoothed), I continue to use Helsinki as a good standard measure:
    the mean temperature in 1930-1939 was 6.0 degrees Celsius and
    the mean temperature in 1990-1999 was 5.9 degrees Celsius.

    Now this is a little unfair to the 1990's because just the limiting years are between the sunspot maxima of 1989 and 2000, which were the two individually most warm years in 1982-2003. To get equal amount of years, I took the preceding two years, 1928 and 1929, to add them to the 1930's. This should reverse the rival, because they still represent the last breath of the previous cold century. One can see this in the regression analysis of these two decades (+ 2 years). The first number is the starting temperature and second number the yearly increase. Note how much more the temperature rises in the 1930's than in the 1990's:
    1930's: 4.7+1.63*(year from 1928 to 1939)
    1990's: 5.9+0.35*(year from 1989 to 2000)

    With these added two years the mean temperature was:
    5.8 degrees in 1928-1939 and
    6.0 degrees in 1989-2000.

    Again we can show with a graph how close the temperatures were in the two decades. First the raw yearly temperatures in Celsius in Helsinki 1928-1939 and 1989-2000. The highest temperatures achieved were a little over 7 degrees, and there are 2 of these occasions in both periods. The years 1938, 1989 and 2000 are at the same time sunspot maxima. The year 1934 is one year after the minimum when the rise has already begun.


    -----------------------------------------------------------------

    The next graph shows the above temperatures with 3 year smoothing to avoid the quasibiennial oscillation (QBO). The minima in both series are 2 years before the sunspot minima and 1990's maxima in temperature go from maximum to maximum in sunspot activity. The 1930's graph rises also towards the sunspot maximum.

    ******************************************************************
    So we have here no sign of any global warming comparing the 1930's and 1990's.
    ******************************************************************


    -----------------------------------------------------------------

    The monthly temperatures in 1930-39 v. 1990-99

    Now that it was an even result when comparing the total decades, let's look, if we find some differences between the decades on monthly basis.

    month      1930-39  1990-99 / diff(199x-193x) 
    ---------------------------------------------
    January      - 3.2    - 2.6 / +0.6
    February     - 4.7    - 4.0 / +0.7
    March        - 1.9    - 0.6 / +1.3
    April          3.2      3.8 / +0.6
    May            9.8      9.5 / -0.3
    June          14.9     14.7 / -0.2
    July          18.3     17.2 / -1.1
    August        17.1     16.3 / -0.8
    September     11.5     11.2 / -0.3
    October        6.0      6.0 /  0.0
    November       2.7      0.9 / -1.8
    December     - 1.8    - 1.5 / +0.3
    ---------------------------------------------
    total          6.0      5.9 / -0.1
    

    Now we see that the winter and the early spring (especially March) are warmer, but summer and late autumn (November) are colder and in amounts that equal each other resulting in even years, at least in average. But what is the reason for this "merry-go-round" -event. The sparse data that we have of the wind directions from 1930's compared with the 1990's hint that there was more easterly and southeasterly than in the 1990's when the winds have been more from west and southwest. So the climate seems to have been a little more continental in the 30's and a little more oceanic in the 90's. But the end result was that these effects cancelled each other during the whole year period. After the cold 1800's the oceans were cold and began to warm only in the 1930's. In the 1990's they were already warm, of which the 1998 el Niño event was a good example. May this be the reason for the change of the main wind direction and also to the precipitation, the dry v. the wet periods.

    The yearly changes in temperature in the 1930's and in the 1990's.

    The climb from the cold 1800's began earnest rightaway in 1930 when the temperature prompted from the typical early 1900's range of 3.7-5.7 range suddenly to a that-time-record of 1900's or 6.6 degrees Celsius. After a couple years of oscillation, was the year of sunspot minimum in 1933 with a temperature of 5.0 degrees. That jumped to 7.2 degrees the next year. Then there was a QBO drop to 5.8 degrees. The QBO(cold) series from 1929/31/33/35/37/39 was 4.5, 4.2, 5.0, 5.8, 6.2 and 5.9 degrees. The intervening QBO(warm)-years 1930...1938 had temperatures of 6.6, 5.8, 7.2, 6.3 and 7.1 degrees. So the 3-year smoothing to eliminate the QBO gives:
    1929-1932: 5.0-5.5 degrees (climbing begins)
    1933-1934: 6.0 degrees (climbing delayed by the sunspot minimum)
    1935-1938: 6.1-6.5 degrees (climbing continues towards the 1937 sunspot maximum)

    From the viewpoint of sunspots there is both similarity and difference between the two decades. Both have at their end (1937 and 2000) a maximum with equal height, 120 Wolfs. But the previous maxima (1928 and 1989) differ profoundly. The former is about 80 Wolfs and the latter 160 Wolfs (about minimum and maximum values after Dalton minimum in 1805-1825). The QBO-smoothed values are:
    1990-1991: 6.0-6.3 degrees (sunspot maximum continues with a secondary maximum in 1991)
    1992-1996: 5.5-5.8 degrees (sunspot minimum in 1996)
    1997-1999: 6.0, 6.4 and 6.7 degrees (approaching the maximum in 2000)

    Sunspots in 1927-1938 (minimum 1933) compared to sunspots in 1989-2000 (minimum 1996).

    Finally the Wolf sunspot values of both periods. The maxima around the first period are about 80 and 120 Wolfs. The first one belongs still to the cold period. The maxima around the second one are about 160 and 120 Wolfs. The length of the sunspot periods before and after the minima of 1933 and 1986 and before 1996 are very near 10 years, which being 1 year less than the mean, is a good sign of high maxima and so it seems, warm periods. All periods longer than the mean 11 years (usually 11.8-12.5 years) are a good sign of low cycles and cold periods.


    -----------------------------------------------------------------

    When did the cold period after the 1930's warm actually begin?

    Let's begin with the 1940's and the amazingly cold years of 1940-1942.

    In 1930-1939 the mean temperature was 6.0 degrees and in 1992-2001 5.9 degrees, which are equal in statistical terms, as above stated. Then suddenly there were the 3 years of 1940-1942 with temperatures in the range of 2.8-3.6 degrees. Now if we take the remaining decadal years 1943-1949, the mean temperature of these 7 years was 5.7 degrees. Now we have a mean temperature of 5.8-5.9 degrees for the years 1930-1949 if we omit those three cold years.

    But that's not allowed, to omit outliers without reason is forgery. In fact, if we take the 5.7-6.0 degrees as the normal temperature for the years of 1930-1949, as we could take, if we look only at the median, that would however mean loss of information. It's the typical temperature, but not the whole picture. In fact just those three cold years may hide the mystery of this warm period.

    Monthly averages.

    Let's take a look at the monthly averages. I have divided the period of 1930-1949 in three subperiods on the basis warm-cold-warm or 1930-1939, 1940-1942 and 1943-1949 in search for the sudden drop of temperature in 1940 and the sudden recovery in 1943, albeit on a bit lowered level from 6.0 to 5.7 degrees.

    period       janua febru  mars april   may  june
    ------------------------------------------------
    1. 1930-1939  -3.2  -4.7  -2.0   3.2   9.8  14.9
    2. 1940-1942 -13.7 -11.4  -6.7   1.3   8.7  14.0	
    3. 1943-1949  -4.6  -5.0  -2.3   3.5   9.6  14.5
    
    diff. p2-p1  -10.5  -6.7  -4.7  -1.9  -1.1  -0.9 
    diff. p3-p1   -1.4  -0.3  -0.3  -0.3  -0.2  -0.4
    

    period        july augus septe octob novem decem
    ------------------------------------------------
    1. 1930-1939  18.3  17.1  11.5   6.1   2.7  -1.9
    2. 1940-1942  18.3  16.0  10.7   5.4   0.4  -5.3
    3. 1943-1949  18.1  16.2  12.3   5.8   1.8  -0.9  
    
    diff. p2-p1    0.0  -1.1  -0.8  -0.7  -2.3  -3.4 
    diff. p3-p1   -0.2  -0.9  +0.8  -0.3  -0.9  +1.0 
    

    Let's first look the differences bwtween 1930's and 1940's when the years 1940-1942 are omitted. Taken the average drop in temperature of 0.3 degrees, the following months are in this range (-0.2...-0.4 degrees): All months from February to July plus October. Deviating months in the "wrong" direction (compared to the general trend) are September and December, both being about one degree warmer than in the 1930's.

    The real losers are August, November and January. August and November compensate with their about 1 degree drop the next month's 1 degree rise. The highest drop has happened in January, 1.4 degrees drop. So the modellers must have their models to explain 1. the general drop in temperature by 0.3 degrees, 2. the rise of temperature in September and December against the general trend and 3. the anomalously great drop of 1.4 degrees in January.

    But let's go back to the anomalously cold years of 1940-1942 and compare them with the 1930's. The actual temperatures of -15.9 in January 1942 and -13.7 in February 1940 were not broken as records until the 1980's. The difference decreases then month after month, when in July, in average the warmest month, the 1930's temperature 18.3 degrees was reached. Then follows of 3-month period from August to October when the temperature drop was "only" about one degree until beginning a marshalling to greater deviations again in November.

    If we look first at the first part of the year, the differences begin with anomalously cold Januaries, record-breaking at that time the 110-year records in Helsinki, with a 10.5 degrees drop from the 1930's January temperatures. Still in February the drop was -6.7 degrees. With respect to these drops, it seems a mystery, why the Julies of both periods were equally warm, 18.3 degrees.

    So a question to the modellers: Why this sudden drop in winters while at the same time the warm summers continued?

    There is one hint for an explanation for this interruption in 1940-1942 in the first Modern Warm Period 1930-1949. The reason may lurk in the El Niño/ENSO string event in 1940-1941 which caused a high pressure centre in Southeast Asia and a low pressure centre in the Pacific Ocean just in the middle of the El Niño current. In fact the next ENSO event classified as very strong occurred in 1982-1983 continuing as moderate in 1986-1987. May it be the cause of the very cold winters in Europe in 1985-1987? As a sidestep we could here have also an explanation to the exceptional cold in 1867 in Northern and Central Europe. There was a prolonged ENSO event in 1864-1868.

    So we can say that there was a warning signal in 1940-1942, After the 3.6 degree warming in 1943 from the previous year there was a slight decline until 1947, but two very warm years in 1948-1949. Because there are no warmer years than 1943 and 1949 and a couple of warmer than 1944-1945 and 1948 until the years 1974-1975, we can say that that the global cooling began in 1950 and ended in 1973.

    The next graphs show the 10 year average compared to the 3 year average temperature on monthly basis from January to December in tens of degrees Celsius (from -15.0 to +20.0).


    -----------------------------------------------------------------

    GRAPHICAL representation of the cold, of the try to warm and comparison of the 1950-1987 temperatures with those in 1988-2004


    The temperatures in 1950-1967. Drop from 1953 to 1956. QBO oscillations from 1956 to the high 1961. Cold times after 1962.

    The temperatures in 1950-1967 smoothed with 3 years to eliminate the QBO. 1 degree drop from high level to low level in 1954-1955. The rise from 1957 to the top of 1960 and fall to the low level in 1965-1969.

    The comparison between smoothed temperatures in 1950-1966 and 1988-2004. The 5.6 degrees makes a clear line. In the earlier it has been overrided only once (1960) and in the later data it has fallen below it only twice (1995 and 1997).

    The temperature in 1969-1987. Shows two attempts to reach the high temperature of 6-7 degrees. The first attempt succeeds in 1975 and second one in 1983-1984, but both fail to keep it. The drop from one of the highest temperatures in 180 years (7.1 degrees) to the low 4.2 degrees in just one year (from 1975 to 1976) is one of the most dramatic falls, although the other fall 6.1 to the record-low 3.4 degrees from 1984 to 1985 is nearly as drametical. They rival the drop from 1939 to 1940.

    The temperature in 1969-1987 smoothed with 3 years shows clearly the two rises and the two falls.

    Comparing the smoothed temperatures of 1968-1987 with the smoothed ones in 1988-2004 shows that the two tops in 1973-1975 and 1982-1983 really reach and partly override the global warm from 1988. Somehow the rise from 1987 to 1988 which gave beginning to the ongoing global warm is astounding. But at the same time we can see that the falls of about 3 degrees between neighboring years (1939-1940, 1975-1976 and 1984-1985) is possible. The rise generally takes more time, the 1987-1988 being an exception.

    The cold period in 1940-1981 between two warm periods.

    The decadal mean temperature after 1930.

    In the next table the Helsinki temperature in 1930-2001 has been divided into 7 decadal parts. To keep it in synchrony with the sunspot cycles, a 10-year period has been kept except from 1970-1981, because the sunspot period at that time (1964-1976) was 12 years, when all the other sunspot cycles after 1930 have been around 10 years.

    years       degrees Celsius 
    ---------------------------
    1930-1939   6.0
    1940-1949   5.0
    1950-1959   5.2
    1960-1969   5.0
    1970-1981   5.2
    1982-1991   5.6
    1992-2001   5.9
    (2002-2004  6.0)    
    

    In summary, we could say that the decadal temperature in 1940-1981 was 5.1 degrees with surrounding decadal temperatures being almost one degree more, 5.9-6.0 degrees. No global warming here, just two peaks 60 years apart and one 40-year colder period between.

    Globally the temperature has not risen since 1998, in Finland since 2000. The newest decadal temperature from 1995-2004 in Helsinki is statistically the same as in the 1930's or in the 1990's or 6.0 degrees.

    Yearly temperatures in 1930-2003 in Helsinki arranged in pseudo-decadal table synchronized with sunspot cycles.

    The latest sunspot minima have occurred in 1923, 1933, 1944, 1954, 1964, 1976, 1986 and 1996. The length of all the cycles, except one, can be regarded to have been 10.3 years. The variation of 0.2-0.3 years in officially accepted values are according to my statistical analysis (website on personal.inet.fi) within acceptable error range. The one exception is the cycle number 20 from 1964 to 1976, which lasted 11.8 years (or one Jupiter year, which may not be accidental). So to get it straight, I have used in the following table decadal cycles except for the cycle 20, for which I use an approximation of 12 years.

    The maximum follows the minimum after about 3.5 years, but when the low values usually prevails about one year, the high values can last for 3, even 4 years. During the period 1923-2000 there are however two exception for the 3.5-year rule. The cycle 16, which began in 1923 was at maximum 5 years later, in 1928, and the long cycle 20 beginning in 1964 was at maximum over 4 years later, just in end of the year 1968.

    N = Spot-Min, X = Spot-Max
     1930-  1940-  1950-  1960-  1970-  1982-  1992-  2002-
    -------------------------------------------------------
                                  4.6 
      6.6    3.6    5.5    5.0    5.3    5.7    6.4    6.1
      4.2    2.8    5.5    6.8    6.1    6.1    5.5    5.6
      5.8    3.1    4.7    4.6    5.5    6.1    5.3    6.2
    N 5.0    6.7    6.3    4.9    6.7    3.4    6.2
      7.2  N 6.1  N 5.6  N 5.5    7.1  N 5.0  N 4.9
      5.8    5.0    4.6    4.9  N 4.2    3.3    6.2
      6.3    5.3    3.8    4.1    4.6    5.9    5.4
    X 6.2  X 4.4  X 5.7    5.5    3.9  X 7.1    6.3
      7.1    5.8    4.2  X 4.8  X 4.8    6.7  X 7.2
      5.9    6.9    6.3    4.3    4.8    6.2    5.9
                                  5.0      
    

    To get a clearer picture of the warm and cold years, in the following table I have omitted all values between 4.0 and 5.9 degrees:

    N = Spot-Min, X = Spot-Max
     1930-  1940-  1950-  1960-  1970-  1982-  1992-  2002-
    -------------------------------------------------------
                                        
      6.6    3.6                                6.4    6.1
             2.8           6.8    6.1    6.1           6.2   
             3.1                         6.1       
    N        6.7    6.3           6.7    3.4    6.2
      7.2  N 6.1  N      N        7.1  N      N    
                                N        3.3    6.2
      6.3           3.8                            
    X 6.2  X      X               3.9  X 7.1    6.3
      7.1                X      X        6.7  X 7.2
             6.9    6.3                  6.2       
                                           
    

    We can see that most normal decade was that from 1960-1969, which contained 9 normal and 1 warm year. From 1950 to 1959 there were 7 normal, 2 warm and 1 cold year. Together this means that from the 20 year between 1950 and 1969 16 years were normal or actually average as regards the temperature.

    Calculated in this way the periods 1930-1939 and 1992-2001 were equal with both having 5 warm years. The 5 warm years in 1982-1991 were compromised with 2 cold years.

    To make things still simpler I have made the definition of warm years still stricter, accepting as warm only years whose temperature exceeds 7 degrees.

    N = Spot-Min, X = Spot-Max
     1930-  1940-  1950-  1960-  1970-  1982-  1992-  2002-
    -------------------------------------------------------
                                   --   
       --    3.6     --     --     --     --     --     --  
       --    2.8     --     --     --     --     --     --
       --    3.1     --     --     --     --     --     --
    N  --     --     --     --     --    3.4     --
      7.2  N  --  N  --  N  --    7.1  N  --  N  --
       --     --     --     --  N  --    3.3     --
       --     --    3.8     --     --     --     --
    X  --  X  --  X  --     --    3.9  X 7.1     --
      7.1     --     --  X  --  X  --     --  X 7.2
       --     --     --     --     --     --     --
                                   --           
    

    By this criteria there are 5 warm years during 1930-2004, namely 1934, 1938, 1975, 1989 and 2000. The 1930's warm years are near the sunspot minimum and the sunspot maximum. Similarly 1975 is near the minimum and 1989 and 2000 at the maximum. Thus none of the five warm years is further than a year from the exact minimum or maximum.

    Of the 7 cold years two are lonely ones and both are near the sunspot maximum, namely one in 1957, just one year before the highest known sunspot maximum and the other in 1978, just 3 years after super-warm 1975, which interrupted the nearly 40 years without any super-warm year.

    Two of the super-cold years are in 1985 and 1987 just surrounding the sunspot minimum in 1986. After these years begins the second warm period in the 20th century. The first period is interrupted with 3 super-cold years in 1940-1942. These are the only super-years that are not near either sunspot minimum or maximum. What is characteristic for all these super-cold years, is that especially winters in all these five years were extremely cold, in fact the coldest during the nearly 180 years of observations in Helsinki.

    The relatively cold period in 1950-1973.

    When the temperature of the periods of 1930-1939 and 1992-2001/2003 was 5.9-6.0 degrees, the mean temperature for the cold period 1950-1973 was only 5.2 degrees. During these 24 years there were only 4 years when the temperature exceeded the mean of the 1930's or 1990's. And the exceedings were in three cases very small (6.1-6.3 degrees) and only one year really was superwarm, namely the year 1961 after a year of 1960 with exceptional amount of thunderstorms following the highest known sunspot peak in 1957-1958. To add to the anomaly of these years, the by far coldest year during this cold period preceded just the maximum in 1956.

    To give an intuitive picture of the yearly temperatures in 1950-1973, I have reconstructed the following table. I have divided the period into four subperiods: 1. cold years: temp. 3.8-4.3 degrees, 2. medium years: temp. 4.6-5.0 degrees, 3. warm years: 5.3-5.7 degrees and 4. very warm years: 6.1-6.8 degrees. The number in the categories are 4, 8, 8 and 4 cases. The gaps without years between are real gaps: there are no years in those temperature ranges. To avoid the mess of numbers, I have used numbers only for the 4 cold and 4 warm years. - = moderate years, + = warm years and N = sunspot minimum, X = sunspot maximum. Obs. The sunspot cycles 1944-1954 and 1954-1964 were of normal length in the 1900's or 10.3 years, the cycle of 1964-1976 lasted 11.8 years (one Jovian year), which was normal in the 1800's.

    year  temperature    / year  temperature    / year  temperature
    -------------------------------------------------------------------
    1950  +              / 1960  -              / 1970  -
    1951  +              / 1961  6.8 very warm  / 1971  +
    1952  -              / 1962  -              / 1972  6.1 very warm
    1953  6.3 very warm  / 1963  -              / 1973  +
    1954N +              / 1964N +
    1955  -              / 1965  - 
    1956  3.8 very cold  / 1966  4.1 very cold
    1957X +              / 1967  +
    1958  4.2 very cold  / 1968X -
    1959  6.3 very warm  / 1969  4.3 very cold
    

    The oscillations around the high maximum in 1957 was already mentioned, but whatabout the influence of the sunspot minima and maxima during the whole material from 1930 to 2003? To investigate this, I have calculated the mean temperature of three years for each minimum and maximum: the exact year and the preceding and the following year. Abbreviations: Sunspot minimum temperatures = SNT and sunspot maximum temperatures = SXT.

    The analysis shows that for the warm 1930's and 1990's the SNT was 5.8-6.0 degrees and the SXT 6.5 degrees. During the cold decades of 1950's and 1970's with the 10.3 years sunspot cycle the SNT was 5.3-5.5 degrees and the SXT 4.5-4.6 degrees. During the long sunspot cycle beginning in the 1960's the values were practically the same: SNT = 5.1 degrees and SXT = 4.9 degrees. The greatest difference was in the 1980's: SNT = 3.9 degrees and SXT = 6.6 degrees.

    In summary: During warm times the SXT is warmer SNT, during cold times the SNT is warmer than SXT.

    The new beginning of the Modern Warm Period or the oddities of 1974-1975 and 1985-1987

    In roughly terms we can say that the temperature in Helsinki was about 6 degrees in 1930-1939, about 5 degrees in 1950-1973 and again about 6 degrees in 1988-2004.

    With one exception (1931 = 4) the temperatures in 1930-1939 and again in 1988-2004 are in the range of 5 to 7 degrees, and again with one exception (1961 = 7) the temperatures in 1950-1973 are in the range of 4 to 6 degrees. Now we can add that the mean temperature in 1974-1987 continued the previous cold period having a mean temperature of 5.0 degrees, and the years 1976-1984 had also a mean temperature of 5.0 degrees in the range of 4 to 6 degrees. Why then separate this period from the cold period?

    The reason is that it seems to be a transition period from the cold period of 1950-1973 (5 degrees) to the warm period that began in 1988 (6 degrees) thus resuming the period of 1930-1939 (6 degrees). It begins with two years, 1974 and 1975, which are extremely warm, 6.7 and 7.1 degrees, respectively. 7 degrees have been overridden only 5 times in 1930-2004 (twice in the 1930's, 7.1 and 7.2 degrees, during this 1975 occasion, in the beginning of the ongoing GW: 1989 = 7.1 degrees and during the peak of ongoing GW in 2000: 7.2 degrees).

    The warm peak in 1974-1975 is exceptional not only by its height, but also by its duration. Both the 7-degree peaks in the 1930's were one year peaks with preceding and surrounding years being 1-2 degrees colder. The same happened with the peak of year 2000. Only comparable case by both height and duration is the beginning of the ongoing GW in 1989-1990 7.1 and 6.7 degrees or the same amounts but in reverse order).

    First we can observe that the winters were very warm. The winters were as warm or warmer next time only when the ongoing GW period began in 1988. The 0.4 degree difference between the years is due to the late-summer (July-Autumn) difference: 1974 belongs in this respect to the cold period, 1975 to the warm period. Could this have something to do with change in Southern Oscillation apparently due to the changed behavior of the Sun? We had had these 10-year periods in Sun's activity throughout the cold period, but now we had had a Sun activity period of 12 years or one Jovian year in 1964-1976. According to my theory, the solar wind is reduced during these prolonged periods of Sun's activity with a burst of activity just before the minimum, which activates the next cycle.

    After a return to the colder 5-degree climate in 1976-1981, the 6-degree GW period seems to begin in 1982, but it lasts only three years. In 1985 and 1987 we have two supercold years, rivalled since 1930 only with the years 1940-1942. They yearly means drops to 3.4 degrees in 1985 and to 3.3 degrees in 1987. It's mainly caused by the supercold winters, and the chill in 1987 also partly by the cold summer. The winter in 1985 with both January and February having a temperature -14 degrees Celsius already breaks the all-time records, but worse is still coming: the January temperature in 1987 of -16.5 still stands as a record cold monthly temperature since the beginning of the temperature measures in Helsinki in 1829. The daily temperatures broke also the records, being at its lowest at -36 degrees Celsius. It needs to be mentioned that the intervening year or 1986 was saved in the yearly level of being labeled as super-cold only because of its relatively warm summer, and the winter was not so harsh ("only" -10 degrees in February).

    So this is the way the ongoing GW (not from global warming, but from global warm) began. In 1989 we had already 7.1 degrees and the peak was reached in 2000 with 7.2 degrees, both by the way peak years of the sunspot activity (1986 was a minimum year).

    Whatever the cause for these three-very-cold-winters series they seem to repeat in about every 45 years. From 1894 to 1939 there were not a single January that would have been colder than -10 degrees. Then in 1893 we find again a harsh winter, with January -13 and February -15 degrees. And in 1895 the February temperature was -13 degrees. Going backwords there are single cold Januaries and some double ones, but the next three-winters-in-row occurs 1848-1850 (-11, -10 and -14 degrees). But now the February deviates from the row. It has throughout this period a normal 1800's temperature (about -5), but the Februaries are cold in 1844-1847 (between -11 and -15 degrees). It is interesting that the global warming since the Dalton minimum in the 1810's was halted in the latter part of the 1840's and turned in a chilling that had its low in the late 1890's. And this correlates very well with what we know about the spottiness of the Sun at that time.

    Global cooling in 1829-1867 and global warming in 1867-1929.

    There has been no overall global warming since 1930, when the Modern Warm Period began. It has a temperature of 5-6 degree in Helsinki. What usually today is called global warming is only the recovery of the 1930's temperature in the 1990's or a recovery to 6 degrees from the 1950-1980 reigned 5 degrees. The real global warming however happened in two phases after the Maunder minimum. The second one took 100 years to climb from 4 degrees to the 5-6 degrees level where we now live.

    The mean decadal temperatures

    years     temperature in Celsius
    --------------------------------
    1830-1839 4.2 (max. year = 4.8)
    1840-1849 4.0              5.0
    1850-1859 4.2              5.3
    1860-1869 3.8              5.7
    1870-1879 3.9              5.7
    1880-1889 4.3              5.4 
    1890-1899 4.6              5.7
    1900-1909 4.4              5.7
    1910-1919 4.7              6.1
    1920-1929 4.8              6.1 
    ------------- the beginning of the Modern Warm Period
    1930-1939 5.9              7.2
    1950-1987 5.1              6.8
    1988-2004 6.0              7.2
    

    This shows very clearly when the global warming, at least in Helsinki, really happened. After the recovery of the Dalton minimum, there was a slight mini-Dalton in the 1860's and 1870's. About 1880 began a steady rise towards warm from the 4 degrees Helsinki. Then suddenly there was a jump to the 6 degree Helsinki, a one-degree jump in one decade. Then 5 degrees reigned 38 years, and the recovery to 6 degrees happened in 1988. But since then, now already for 17 years, there has been a steady 5-to-7 degree Modern Warm Period (MWP2) without any trend to any direction, only small oscillation.

    The mean temperatures during the 16 sunspot cycles since 1833

    years          yr temperature in Celsius
    min  max  end
    ------------------------------------------------------
    1833 1837 1842 10 4.1 (max. year = 5.0)
    1843 1848 1855 13 4.0              4.8
    1856 1860 1866 11 4.0              5.7
    1867 1870 1877 11 3.7              5.7
    1878 1883 1888 11 4.3              5.4
    1889 1894 1900 12 4.5              5.7 
    1901 1907 1912 12 4.7              6.1
    1913 1917 1922 10 4.7              6.1
    -------------- the beginning of the Modern Warm Period
    1923 1928 1932 10 5.0              6.6
    1933 1937 1943 11 5.4              7.2 
    1944 1947 1953 10 5.6              6.9
    1954 1957 1963 10 5.2              6.8
    1964 1968 1975 12 5.4              7.1
    1976 1979 1985 10 4.9              6.1
    1986 1989 1995 10 5.8              7.1
    1996 2000    ?  ? 6.0              7.2 calc. till 2004 (9 yrs)
    
    

    The real rise or global warming as seen in Helsinki occurred from the mini-Dalton in 1867-1877 to the cycle 1944-1953 or it was nearly 2 degrees in 70-80 years. After a small drop in 1954-1985, the temperature rises in 1986-2004 0.4. Notice the mean sunspot cycle length of 11.1 years before MWP2 and 10.3 years during the MWP2.

    The next graph shows the rise with a logarithmic best fit, which shows a steep rise in the beginning and moderate rise in the end. The rise begins deeply in the 1810's Dalton minimum and will reach its maximum in 2025. Both the best fit cycle and the Gleissberg cycle (see below) suggest that there is a global cooling ahead before 2050. With this classification the 1930's high does not appear as high as the 1990's, because the 10 warm years are divided partly into the previous and following periods, diluted by the colds in 1920's and in the beginning of the 1940's. The last period 1996-2004 belongs wholly to the MWP2, the second last period is diluted by the cold years of 1986 and 1987.

    The temperatures are in tenths of degrees Celsius.


    -----------------------------------------------------------------

    According to my studies published in http://personal.inet.fi/tiede/tilmari/sunspots.html ,the best estimate of the Sun's intensity is seen via the Gleissberg cycle (see more in that study):

    1. cycles
    2. years             
    3. total length
    4. mean length                            
    5. total length in Jovian years
    6. change in 5.
    7. the mean maximum R(M)
    8. the total length graphically (the limits: *=71, *=84)
    9. obs!
    
       1.        2.   3.   4.   5.    6.   7.    8.             9.
     
     1- 7 1755-1833 78.7 11.2 6.63 +0.03  96 *     : x    *
     2- 8 1766-1843 77.0 11.0 6.49 -0.14 105 *     x :    * near mean 
     3- 9 1775-1856 80.5 11.5 6.79 +0.30 107 *     : : x  * diff < 2yrs
     4-10 1784-1867 82.5 11.8 6.95 +0.16  98 *     : :   x* diff < 2yrs
     5-11 1798-1878 80.6 11.5 6.79 -0.17  98 *     : : x  * diff < 2yrs
     6-12 1810-1889 79.0 11.3 6.66 -0.13 102 *     : x    *
     7-13 1823-1901 78.4 11.2 6.61 -0.05 107 *     :x:    *
     8-14 1833-1913 79.7 11.4 6.72 +0.11 106 *     : :x   *
     9-15 1843-1923 80.1 11.4 6.75 +0.03 100 *     : :x   *
    10-16 1856-1933 77.8 11.1 6.56 -0.19  93 *     :x:    * near mean 
    11-17 1867-1944 77.0 11.0 6.49 -0.07  96 *     x :    * near mean 
    12-18 1878-1954 75.3 10.8 6.35 -0.14  97 *   x : :    *
    13-19 1889-1964 75.1 10.7 6.33 -0.02 115 *   x : :    *
    14-20 1901-1976 74.8 10.7 6.31 -0.02 119 *   x : :    *
    15-21 1913-1986 73.1 10.4 6.16 -0.15 133 * x   : :    *
    16-22 1923-1996 72.8 10.4 6.14 -0.02 141 * x   : :    *
    17-23 1933-2007 73.4 10.5 6.19 +0.05 141 * x   : :    * 2005-07 est 
    

    And the same graphically. Coincidental similarity between the temperature and Sun's intensity or do we have here the explanation, at partly at least, of the socalled global warming? My theory of the physical connection is based on the fact that the more intense the Sun is, the more there are plasma eject events that through collisions via Earth through the magnetic poles causes except aurorae and disturbances in the electric power grids, also transforms their kinetic energy in the sudden collision with the Earth's atmosphere, into warm. The changes in the the temperature of the outer core of the Sun is not what matters, but what matters is the intensity of the solar wind and especially the frequency of the solar storms.

    Notice also that the Gleissberg minimum of the lengths of the sunspot cycles is reached (which means maximum of the intensity). There is now a standstill and the a reversal, which according to my theory means colder times beginning in 2020-2030. Is there a new Dalton or rightaway a new beginning of Maunder-minimum-like times about 2050, remains to be seen.


    -----------------------------------------------------------------

    Summary

    1. There has been a fall of 0.2-0.3 degrees Celsius from 1988 to 2004. The level reached during the 17 years in 1988-2004 is rivalled during the last 200 years only in 1930-1939.

    2. The sunspot maxima and minima are clearly seen in the data just during the period when man is supposed to be guilty of warming the atmosphere (minima in 1986 and 1996, maxima in 1989 and 2000). The level of activity is in accord with the temperature and could be the reason for the 0.3 degree drop (the cycle peaking in 1989 reached 160 Wolfs, the cycle peaking in 2000 reached 120 Wolfs). The data may suggest an immediate reaction towards the winter temperatures and a delayed one or more long-lasting towards the summer temperatures.

    3. The 1930's and the 1990's are equal in temperature. The mean temperature of the 1930's is 6.0 degrees Celsius and of the 1990's 5.9 degrees the difference being statistically insignicant. So the result is a tie. There is NO SIGN OF ANY RISE OF TEMPERATURE from 1930 to 2004.

    4. There is one degree colder period from 1940 to 1987 compared to the preceding 10 years and following 17 years.

    5. A real rise shows from 1830 to 1930. There is first a much colder climate (by about 2 degrees) than today and then a gradual rise from 4 degrees to 6 degrees from about 1880 to 1930. Various proxies show that the temperature were last as high and partly even higher around the year 1000 AD and again in the 1100's. That's the time when Greenland was green as the name given by the Vikings indicates.

    6. Thus the 175-year period investigated (1829-2004) can be divided into 5 subperiods:
    --- 1. the cold period before 1880 (possibly at least from Dalton minimum's minimum in the 1810's): 4 degrees
    --- 2. the real and only permanent participation of Helsinki in the global warming from 1880 to 1930: a rise from 4 to 6 degrees.
    --- 3. the first part of the Modern Warm Period (MWP2) during the 1930's and partly during the 1940's: 6 degrees.
    --- 4. the medium period from 1950 to 1987: 5 degrees.
    --- 5. the second part of the Modern Warm Period since 1988: 6 degrees.

    7. The temperature of the whole period correlates neatly both with the length of the sunspot cycles and the socalled Gleissberg cycle (71-84 years).


    The picture that started this analysis will also end it,
    but with some explanations and comments.



    The sunspot numbers are smoothed by the Hale sunspot cycle or 22 years. This means that the min-max -cycle has pairly been taken away so that the greater trends can be seen more clearly.

    We have yearly sunspot numbers from 1700, monthly from 1749 and daily from 1818. The sunspot numbers before 1843 are calibrated to correspond the formula adopted then. The sunspot numbers in 1600-1699 are mainly derived and calibrated from aurorae doublechecked with sporadic observations from 1610 on.

    I leave to you to seek resemblances with the temperature here on Earth. You can comment to me, if you see any. You can comment to me, if you don't. Or just wonder about the mother nature.

    Or look it this way.



    References

    Betancourt, Julio et al.: Packrat Middens. Arizona 1990.
    Crowley, Thomas and North, Gerald: Paleoclimatology. Oxford 1991.
    Diaz, Henry and Markgraf, Vera: El Niño. Cambridge 1992.
    Grove, Jean: The Little Ice Age. London/New York 1988.
    Houghton, John: The Global Climate. Cambridge 1985.
    Huggett, Richard: Climate, Earth Processes and Earth History. New York/Berlin/Heidelberg 1991.
    Niroma, Timo: personal.inet.fi/tiede/tilmari/sunspots.html 1998-2004.
    Wei-Hock Soon - Yaskell: The Maunder Minimum and the Variable Sun-Earth Connection. Singapore & NJ & London 2003. Wigley, T. M. L. et al.: Climate and History. Cambridge 1981.
    Williams, G. E.: Megacycles. 1981.

    -----------------------------------------------------------------
    Comments should be addressed to timo.niroma@pp.inet.fi

    For more information about sunspots:
    Goto http://personal.inet.fi/tiede/tilmari/sunspots.html or
    Click here.

    For more information about Helsinki temperatures from 1829:
    Goto http://www.tilmari.pp.fi/tilmari5.htm or
    Click here.

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