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Speech at the Promotion of Western Alienation Rally at the Steps of the Alberta Legislature Building
Aug. 27, 2005, by Alar H. Aksberg
I am here today to only represent myself and the knowledge I have built up about major environmental issues. The Kyoto agreement is one of several environmental issues that are very poorly understood, and generally misrepresented, among Albertans. The Kyoto agreement is an issue that may not have a solution for Alberta within Canada. So a rally supporting Alberta Independence and Western Alienation is a good forum for my topic.
Do you remember the slogan “Duck and cover” from years past? Was it helpful in any way? Would it have made any difference if you were hiding below your desk in a classroom when the entire building would evaporate around you? It did not really teach any good and useful lessons in personal protection .
There was a subliminal lesson, that very few have caught on to. It taught You to trust Authority, the Leader. And even more, that Big Brother, the Government Experts, are out to help you to survive some imagined disaster. Some catchy slogans and united 'we can do it' mentality fed this nonsense.
To trust and rely on Government for 'rescue' may be the most dangerous lesson anybody could learn. I think this has contributed to the lowering voter turnout at elections. The thinking has become that it does not make any difference anyhow, because Big Brother knows best. Just sit back and watch the post election coverage on CBC TV to see by how much the Liberal Team is winning by this time. Election Hockey Night in Canada.
A people lulled into this zombie like condition will drift along nicely and just do some casual complaining just to stay in fashion. When something goes wrong nearby; call for a Public Inquiry and everything will be fine.
When a supposed comedian is then promoting some One Ton Challenge and Cleaner Air, it must be good. Straight from the mind of the benevolent Big Brother.
Watch out. The impact of the Kyoto Agreement will make the National Energy Program (NEP) of the 1980's to seem like a slight inconvenience.
How dare you to call the NEP a slight inconvenience, you argue. It laid Albertas economy in ruins for over a decade.
Let us first look at the Kyoto agreement itself. About 20 pages of rather easy to read text, and a hidden agenda. The governance is by an unelected subcommittee of the United Nations, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC. That is a group appointed by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme.
The have the Power and you cannot elect any of its members, either directly or indirectly. It is supposed to be a scientific expert group, but has the direct power to govern the World Economy because it governs the Global Energy Use. By the invention of buying 'carbon credits' it is also introducing Global Taxation. With it, true government is moved from, albeit corrupt, but elected, government in Ottawa, to a back-room secret club in the UN bureaucracy. The result is World Government and Taxation by stealth. The claimed science they build their argument on is flimsy at best, but some may be outright dishonest.
There is no consensus about the validity of the science. Several scientific movements are challenging the IPCC claims. In headcount among scientists, the 'IPCC science' would be rejected, but they have the blessing of the UN. Noisy special interest groups caused government support. Good funding for even remotely related proper science is easily obtained if the 'Sesame Open' words of 'Global Warming' are in the funding proposal. The IPCC, and the related 'science' attempts to govern how much carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (NOX) is released into the air.
If you think this it is about cleaning the air, you are dead wrong. Almost every imaginable industry and human activity is deeply affected. There is an overall reduction of Canadian energy use to 94% of the 1990 consumption. In real terms, about a one third reduction from today's level. Looking down their list we find:
Forestry, as for management, cutting rates and reforestation. Could ruin the lumber, pulp and paper industries. Tree growth reduces CO2 in the air. A growing tree may become a more valued resource than its lumber or pulp value.
Agriculture, covers both field crops and animal husbandry. A recent report claims that 20% of all human activity emission of CO2 arrives from animals raised for food. Manure, due to CH4 emissions has already been a long time target. In light of this, the lame reaction from Ottawa about the export difficulties for Canadian cattle is no surprise. A reduction of the cattle industry gives 'emission credits' to Ottawa, paid for by Alberta family farmer's livelihood.
Manufacturing, requiring, and I quote from the text: “.. phasing out of market imperfections, fiscal incentives, tax and duty exemptions and subsidies in all greenhouse gas emitting sectors that run counter to the objective of the Convention ... “. In common language, that means that all industries need to rebuild, and not get any any incentives for keeping going if too expensive to rebuild. Shut down and again, gain 'emission credits'. Within Canada, this has already been breeched. The Canadian auto industry, in Ontario and Quebec, has been promised that they will not be inconvenienced by the Kyoto regulations. A quick glance at who is involved explains why. The biggest Canadian owned business in the auto industry is Magna corporation. They supply almost every manufacturer with sub-assemblies to new cars. Magna is owned by Frank Stronach. He is a long time supporter and donor to the governing Liberal Party. His daughter, Belinda Stronach, is as you well know, after her defection from the Conservative party to the Liberals, the Minister of Human Resources, and in charge of the elimination of government corruption.
Coal, oil and gas are part of the energy sector. This core sector of the Alberta economy may be what will get hit the hardest. In the July 16, 2005, Canadian Gazette, the publication where parliamentary and government initiatives are published the Federal Government announced intent to regulate and fine 'excess emissions'. The set rate is $200 per ton of carbon dioxide. There are two classifications for industry sectors. One has no change, presumably the auto industry. The other has a 15% reduction required for the industry sector. What does it mean? The excess burning of a liter of gas produces about 3 kilograms of CO2, or in money, 60 cents on top of the price per liter of gasoline. One barrel of 'excess' crude oil would be hit by a $95 fine. Think of Fort McMurray, where the tar sands production is going from about one milion barrels per day to three million barrels by 2015. If that is considered 'excess', the fine on additional production is about $65 million per day, or $24 billion per year.
Many are enthusiastic about so called bio fuels. Soy bean oil as diesel replacement and corn brewed to ethanol are promoted. This sounds very nice, but has a problem. Not enough arable land. If all corn and soy beans grown in North America would be used as fuel, it would replace three percent of the current petroleum based fuels. That is enough for one day of traffic per month. What day in the next month do you want shipping, flights and your car to move? Corn alcohol takes more energy than its fuel content, so it is poor economy to produce it for any other purpose than its common use today, which is as booze. Have the ethanol fuel promoters 'hit the bottle'?
The NEP was governed by elected Canadian politicians. It did indeed take time, and a lower crude oil price, to get rid of that. Kyoto is governed, as mentioned, by unelected enthusiasts that believe that the Kyoto agreement will save the World. How do you replace that committee, the IPCC, a group of appointed and committed believers in their own self-imagined great ideas?
What about Global Warming? It is the news almost daily. Bad weather, forest fires, heavy rain, snowstorms and drought are all caused by Climate Change we hear. Has it not got much warmer and expected to get out of hand very soon? We hear that there is new evidence for Climate Change almost daily. The warm climate is causing an increase in hurricanes, isn't it?
The 1930's, an acknowledged warm decade had the fewest number of Atlantic hurricanes on record. Reality should have a cooling effect on these hot tempered claims, but gets poor media coverage.
Scientific evidence is built on observations, measurements and application of good statistical methods. Most of us can correctly quote Mark Twain in his comparison of the level of lies; paraphrased something like “ Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics“. But we are still taken by the newest health scare and other gloomy news. It is the results of the first report that gets the media coverage. It can be totally wrong, and shown to be so by subsequent research. Science then rejects the proposal, but the public mind has the incorrect theory in its permanent memory.
In order to form a scientific theory, similar experiments have to produce similar results, repeatedly, and regardless of who conducts the experiments.
Let us do a thought experiment. We have been given a nice statistical formula that is supposed to calculate trends. Most telephone numbers in Edmonton begin with the number 4. The second number is rather random, so to expect an average first two digits at about 45 is quite reasonable. We enter all the first two digits for each letter along the alphabet and recalculate when we are done with each letter.
Everything goes as expected until we get to K, L and M, where their average suddenly goes up to 46. For O, P and Q we get 47. Man oh man, we say and rush off a press release, informing the world that we are 99% certain that by time we get to enter the X, Y and Z numbers in the Edmonton telephone directory for those names will have beginning numbers of around 50, or even 54, unless we reduce the issuance of new telephones by Telus by 15%.
The graph of the relationship between the alphabetic order of the name and the value of the phone number looks like a hockey stick. Here is clear evidence for that for all the names from A to J have an unchanging trend, but starting by M, the numbers go up due to number over-use. The graph is proof!
You think I have been hit hard over the head with a hockey stick, or am 'naturally' off my rockers. I wish your were right. This same statistical formula is what Michael Mann, with co-authors, used to produce the now well distributed 'hockey stick temperature graph', that shows stable temperature for about 800 years, and then, staring in about 1850, starts climbing. By 2000 it shows a couple of degrees of 'excess warming' and the trend points toward 5 or even 8 degrees warming by 2050. This hockey stick graph is the 'evidence' for the need to join up behind the Kyoto agreement. The data that was used for calculation was kept secret, claiming scientific integrity reasons. Other than a short period of research access, that is still hidden away from normal scientific scrutiny.
A few years ago, after some good negotiations, two Canadian researchers, Stephen McIntyre and Ross McKitrick, gained access to the data, as well as the statistical formulas and methods used to produce the 'hockey stick temperature graph'. They found bad lapses, missing and/or multiple entries and other data errors that cannot produce any reliable calculations. But worse, this formula almost always produces a 'hockey stick graph', regardless of the input data, like numbers from a phone directory. McIntyre and McKitrick used what statisticians call a Monte Carlo series, a random number series, and got the same hockey stick graph when testing the formula.
This fictional graph is now in Environment Canada's resource materials for use in Canadian schools. Dr. Timothy Ball, who was the first person in Canada to earn a Doctorate in Climatology, and taught Climatology at the University in Winnipeg for 28 years. He knew very well that to approach the Liberal party about this misleading of Canadian students would be futile.
Dr. Ball wrote the Conservative Party of Canada instead. Not receiving an answer for quiet some time, he wrote again. Still no answer. By time he got so frustrated that he published his letters, and still no answer. At Federal party level, all four parties in the Parliament are, or look like, supporters of the Kyoto agreement.
Dr. Ball is one of several scientific advisor's to Calgary based Friends of Science (FOS). Web site: http://www.friendsofscience.org . He is also an active participant, and very well respected contributor to some international forums among 'Climate Skeptics'.
What actually governs the climate? It is the sun, as it is the only large source of heat available, and the major source of ions and other atomic or subatomic particles that do influence the weather and climate. Water vapor represents about 97% - 98%, or 32 degrees C warming, of all greenhouse gases, acting as a 'blanket' to Earth. CO2 represents about 1% of the total, or about half a degree in temperature. Without water vapor, Earth would be totally frozen over in a permanent ice age. The effect of CO2 is negligible in the context. A doubling of the CO2 content in the air may help to warm Earth by half a degree.
Dr. Sallie Baliunas, an astrophysicist at Harvard, is another adviser to the FOS. I had the great pleasure to hear her presentation at a FOS lunch meeting in Calgary earlier this year. Dr. Baliunas went beyond the science toward the end of her presentation. The 1600's witch burnings were frequently the result of allegations of some person, a witch, or even groups of alleged witches, having caused weather or climate events. Frost, hail and drought were all the result of witchcraft, according to the best science available at the time. Claims of human cause for climate change indeed has a long history.
In the early 1970's there were several books published about the cooling of Earth. An Ice Age was claimed to be imminent, due to industrial emissions of soot and other fine particles. The claim was about an expected dimming of the sun by dirty air. The more catchy term, 'nuclear winter', made for higher numbers of book sales. That cooling period was part of a natural cycle. At the moment the warmer 30-year period has peaked, and it is starting to cool again.
Some indicators already show the characteristics of the cooling trend. The are many natural variations to the climate. Climate is about long variations over decades. The weather changes over days, but is often misrepresented as climate.
In geological terms, we are in a warm period. 20,000 years ago Edmonton was under a mile of ice. In round numbers, Ice Ages last for 100,000 years, with about 10,000 to 20,000 year warm periods between them. We are by no means anywhere close to the warmest period since the last Ice Age. 1,000 years ago it was about one degree warmer. The Vikings were farming on Greenland, growing wheat and barley. England was in a trade war with France. The issue was the English vineyards and substantial export of cheap English quality wine across Europe.
About 1,000 years before that, the so called Roman warm period, was even warmer. A long stretch from 3,000 to 8,000 years ago was about three degrees warmer than today. Wild grapes were growing in Sweden, as I learned from the elementary school history books. So any claims about 'unprecedented' warm climate for the current era are fictional. The warm periods are also when humanity have made its greatest strides forward.
For CO2 content in air, the consensus method is analyzing CO2 content in air bubbles from ice cores drilled out from the Greenland and Antarctic ice caps. CO2 dissolves easily in water, as well as into ice, especially under pressure. CO2 is the 'fizz' in soda drinks.
Several attempts to re-evaluate the historic data for CO2 have been made.
One of the more intriguing is by Dr. Friederike Wagner, of the University of Utrecht in Holland. She analyzed tree leaves found in up to 8,000 year old peat bogs. The stomata, which are the small pores where leaves exchange CO2 for oxygen, change size by changes in CO2 content for the year the leaf grew. The 8,000 old leaves have about the same size stomata as today's leaves, indicating the same CO2 content. This is early research, although it seems impeccable, but more research is needed to provide conclusive facts.
Maybe the 'unprecedented' CO2 content will also prove to be bogus. Maybe the warm periods actually provide more CO2, not that CO2 makes warm periods. Some ice core data also shows this same trend clearly. CO2 follows temperature, not driving it.
A substantial part of the 'green revolution' can be directly attributed to CO2 enrichment. Commercial greenhouses, from where we get those great tasting hothouse tomatoes have triple the CO2 content in the air, as compared to outdoor air.
Experiments by the Arizona based CO2 Science group show substantial nutritional benefits for foods grown in a CO2 enriched environment. CO2 enrichment may well be a blessing, not detriment, to our lives. Check out
http://www.co2science.org/ for more information.
With so many points of uncertainty, why do we need to put ourselves under the burden of complying to the Kyoto agreement? Michael Crichton may have hit on the truth in a speech he gave to the Commonwealth Club a few years ago; Eco-Religion.
Eco-Religion in short is about that the Goddess, Mother Earth is subjected to Human Sin, in the form of Western Living and misuse of natural resources. The Salvation is in the rejection of these sinful ways, and return to a 'natural life' in the caves. Crichton's masterful, fact-based, novel 'State of Fear' is an excellent introduction to the understanding of the mentality of the fanatic thinking of the followers of Eco-Religion. Superiority complex among some trust-fund living may play a role. Lack of general purpose and meaning in their personal lives find an excellent outlet in their evangelism of 'Saving of Earth'.
Suppose that some of the leading individuals among the 'scientists' about Climate Change are followers of Eco-Religion, and want to evangelize everybody else to the same religious belief. What better way than scaring us with some imaginable upcoming disaster. In the 1950's and 1960's it was groomed by 'Duck and Cover'. Maybe today's equal mantra is Reduce, Reuse and Recycle.
A free download of my book “Yes to Logos, is it Toxic Waste or Toxic Thinking that is the Issue” is also available below. I wrote that book in 2002
There is newer research available, and I am drafting a very interesting concept of a 'cloud top debate' between two historic, scientific, but fictional individuals. Some other of my writings, on personal esteem and actualization are also below here. In closing I like to ask why we allow ourselves to be misled by these Big Brotherly claims. When we understand the True Answer to that, we can make our choice. It is either: Reject Kyoto or Duck and Cover.
Alar H. Aksberg
Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
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Free down loadable books by Alar H. Aksberg
(password for both books is ' aksiom ' )
Download 'Yes to Logos, is it Toxic Waste or Toxic Thinking that is the Issue' by
Alar H. Aksberg, click below:
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